It’s another big week of football, and the NFL odds ave some interesting values. Below are my three favorite player props for my NFL Picks this week, after a good Week 9.
Heath Miller TD Scored
Last week we successfully predicted that Travis Kelce would find the end zone against the horrible Jets defense, and after one tight end cash in Week 9, let’s try to go back to that well in Week 10. The Steelers’ hot offense is going into New York to play the Jets, and after giving up a touchdown to a tight end last week, the Jets are poised to do it again this week.
The Steelers offense is on fire right now, and with the Jets giving up 11 touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, it’s amazing that bet365 has Heath Miller’s NFL Odds to score a touchdown this week at +130. While Miller hasn’t exactly been a red zone guy as much for the Steelers this season, he still has two touchdowns this season, and one two weeks ago as well. Since the Jets don’t seem to worry about the tight ends in the red zone, this is a great value to kick off your NFL picks this week.
Free NFL Props Pick: Miller TD Scored (+130)
Zach Mettenberger O/U 236.5 pass yards
The Titans’ rookie quarterback has another big test this week as Tennessee heads into Baltimore to play the Ravens. The NFL odds aren’t giving the Titans much of a chance, which may play into our prop pick on Mettenberger. Considering this is likely going to be a blowout, the passing yards total for Mettenberger is low if that’s the case. The Titans can’t run the ball anyway, and against the shaky Ravens pass defense, it would not surprise me to see this total go over.
Last week Mettenberger threw for almost 300 yards, and after that performance he should be getting more love than this. The Ravens are giving up nearly 265 passing yards per game this season, and if they are up big, they will let the rookie throw the ball around some. Take the over and add it to your NFL Picks.
Free NFL Props Pick: Mettenberger OVER 236.5 pass yards (-125) at Bet365
Travis Kelce O/U 52.5 receiving yards
After cashing a touchdown prop with Kelce last week, it’s time to try and hit on the young and talented tight end once again. This week however, the matchup isn’t as enticing. The Chiefs are heading into Buffalo to play the Bills, who are the 12th best team at preventing tight end production. Combine that with Kelce’s O/U of 52.5, and the under looks like the play this week.
Not only have the Bills been pretty good overall on defense this season, but also Kelce hasn’t been outstanding when it comes to yards. He has only eclipsed 50 yards receiving in three of his eight games this season, and only once in four road games. Plus before last week’s performance against the Jets, Kelce had totaled less than 100 yards in his three previous games. While it’s going to be close, the Chiefs seem content with using Kelce as a red zone guy, and not much in between the 20s. Take the under and add it to your NFL Picks.
Free NFL Props Pick: Kelce UNDER 52.5 receiving yards (-120)