Add Steelers to Your NFL Picks vs. Jaguars for Week 5

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 3, 2014 9:04 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 3, 2014 9:04 PM UTC

In this week's steamroller we breakdown and analyze the Week 5 NFL matchup between Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars and determine our NFL picks for the game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 ET
Much like college football, NFL teams who dominate the point of attack have been a solid ATS winner over the years.  In the last 4 years alone, NFL teams who have outrushed the opposition by 30 or more yards in a game are 517-171 ATS (75.1%).  This year, those numbers are even better at 37-10 ATS through 4 weeks of play.  The key is to project which teams will have this overland success based on YTD running statistics on both offense and defense of both teams, current form, injuries, home/road dichotomies and situational set ups.  Many of those conditions and parameters are part of the analysis below. 

The decline of the Pittsburgh Steelers in recent seasons can be traced directly to their lack of success at the line of scrimmage.  In 2010 and 2011, the Steelers were a combined 26-10 SU.  In those years, they outrushed the opposition by combined numbers of 121/4.3 to 81/3.5.  In the last two seasons, the Men of Steel have gone 16-16 SU.  It is no coincidence that in those two seasons, the Steelers’ running game plummeted to an average of 92/3.6, while they were allowing 103/4.0. 

The Jacksonville demise of the previous 2 seasons shows declines in the same area.  In the previous 2 years, the Jags are 6-26 SU.  In those seasons, they have been outrushed by combined numbers of 146/4.1to 82/3.5. 

No longer can we blame the lack of consistency in the Pittsburgh offense. Behind the Killer Bs of Ben, Bell, and Blount, the Steeler attack is averaging 409 YPG, second only to the Washington Redskins in offensive output.  The ground game has come to life, averaging 144/5.4 for the YTD.  Fueled by a non-sensical home loss to lowly Tampa Bay, look for the Steelers to play with a purpose in assuring they stay on the + side of the .500 mark.   That motivation overrides the fact the Steelers are 3-8 ATS as road chalk of late.  At this point in time, the Jags appear to be little more than an expansion team.  At 0-4 SU ATS, J’ville has failed to cover by 57 points.  In so doing, they are being outscored by an average of 38-15 and outgained by an average of 451-279.  All of those numbers are in the bottom 3 of the league.  In short, the Jags are a young team with no ground game (70/3.5) and a stop unit that is toothless. When choosing your NFL picks look for the focus of the Steelers to extend the Jaguars ineptitude.  

Free NFL Pick: Steelers at 5Dimes

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