Add Small Dog Colts +3 vs. Cowboys to Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 17, 2014 1:32 PM GMT

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014 1:32 PM GMT

Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys collide in week 16 NFL betting, a highly-anticipated clash in NFL betting circles. Here's a breakdown of this matchup and our NFL betting verdict.

Indianapolis Colts Clinch AFC South Title
Indianapolis Colts successfully defend their AFC South title and reach their third straight playoffs after clinching the 17-10 win over the Houston Texans in week 15 NFL betting. It was jubilation  when the last second ticked off the clock across the bench as the Colts celebrated accomplishing the goal all teams set at the start of the season: to make the playoffs. And  with two games to spare, they have a chance to clinch a bye and home field advantage if they win out down the stretch.

Andrew Luck went 18-of-34 for 187 yards and two touchdown passes against a tough Texans teams that sacked him twice and forced an interception. The Colts fell behind early in the game but then the tables turned in their favour when Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured early in the second quarter and the Texans were forced to rely on the services of rookie Tom Savage. Savage made costly mistakes and that was all the Colts needed to get back in the game.


Dallas Cowboys In Pole Position For NFC East Title
Dallas Cowboys reclaimed top spot in the NFC East when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-27 on the road on Sunday Night Primetime Football, a highly-entertaining clash that featured end-to-end action and a veritable scoring feast between to potent offenses in the league.

Tony Romo and the Cowboys raced to a 21-0 lead early in the game, but the Eagles rallied to close the gap to 11-points before halftime and then scored back-to-back touchdowns early in the third quarter to take the 24-21 lead.  Just as the Eagles looked to have all the momentum, the Cowboys answered with a score to take the 28-24 lead and then never looked back.

As things currently stand, the Cowboys are in top spot with a 10-4 SU record, largely built on a 7-0 record on the road. Indeed, they are the only undefeated team on the road this season. Where the Cowboys falls short of the mark is at home; they are 3-4 SU on the season at the AT&T Stadium, ahead of a date with another potent offense in week 16 NFL betting. Despite this rather glaringly suspect home form, they are installed as the bookies favourites to win outright at -155 and as the 3-point home chalk. Do the bookies have it right?


NFL Betting Verdict:
At face value, the NFL betting lines grossly overestimate the Cowboys at home at the expense of the Indianapolis Colts. Nowhere have the Cowboys struggled more than at home this season with losses to the Niners,  Redskins, Cardinals and Eagles. A 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS record, highlighted by a 2-point margin of defeat, is hardly a ringing endorsement of the Cowboys and their NFL odds to win SU and cover against the spread in week NFL 16 betting. NFL bettors need to be careful not to overreact to last week's win over the Eagles when weighing in on this clash on their NFL picks this weekend.

In more ways than one this game could go either way with two potent offenses and two defenses that are far from infallible. It's also worth keeping in mind the Colts will be coming into this game a little bit lighter on pressure than the Cowboys. Given the Colts are going to the playoffs they can play more freely in this game, without the burden of pressure the Cowboys most assuredly will be under because the business of clinching the divisional title and securing their place in the postseason is on the line. Not to mention, the Eagles, who take on the Redskins, arguably, have a much easier matchup on paper in week 16 NFL betting and with a win could make life more difficult for the Cowboys.

The 10-4 SU Colts are 4-2 SU and ATS on the road with a 4.2-point margin of victory. Early NFL betting trends reveal the Colts have the larger market share of public betting. And, for our money, we agree with those trends. The Colts leap off the page as the value NFL pick on the road at 3-points.  

Free NFL Picks: Colts +3.0 at BetOnline

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