Add Home Cover to NFL Picks as 49ers Host Eagles

Steven Suarez

Friday, September 26, 2014 2:39 PM GMT

The Eagles are still undefeated this season, but will face their most difficult test this weekend against the 49ers. San Fran has stuttered to begin the season; will they get things right at home in Week 4?

Depending on the sportsbook, the 49ers are favored by either 4.5 or 5 points. The opening line was at four.

A lot of points are expected in this one, explaining the high O/U of 50.5. For the record, the 'over' has hit in each of Philadelphia's first three matchups this season.

San Francisco 49ers in 2014-15 regular season: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, -2.0 margin of victory
Injury Watch: Frank Gore (probable), Michael Crabtree (probable), Vernon Davis (questionable), Patrick Willis (probable), Justin Smith (probable), Tramaine Brock (questionable)

Philadelphia Eagles in 2014-15 regular season: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, +7.7 margin of victory
Injury Watch: Mychal Hendricks (questionable), Fletcher Cox (questionable), Jordan Matthews (probable)

The 49ers were in control against Arizona in Week 3, only to surrender the lead and lose 23-14 in the end. They only had 318 yards of total offense in the defeat.

Colin Kaepernick was 29-of-37 for 245 yards and one interception, with Stevie Johnson (nine catches for 103 yards) and Michael Crabtree (10 catches for 80 yards and a TD) the top targets on the day. Kaepernick led the team in rushing, going for 54 yards on 12 carries, as both Carlos Hyde (three rushes for 13 yards and a score) and Frank Gore (six carries for 10 yards) were quiet.

That's two straight losses for San Francisco after a convincing Week 1 win in Dallas. The 49ers need to turn things around in a hurry – will they start in Week 4?

The Eagles remain unbeaten after beating Jacksonville (34-17), Indianapolis (30-27) and Washington (37-34) through the first three weeks. They haven't been near their best defensively, but are more than making up for it with their high-tempo and ultra-effective offensive performances in Chip Kelly's scheme.

This past weekend, Philadelphia held on to beat Washington 37-34 at home, though the team wasn't able to cover as 6.5-point favorites.

Nick Foles made quick work of the Redskins, throwing for 325 yards and three touchdowns for a stellar QBR rating of 95.2. His preferred targets were Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews, who combined for 16 catches, 213 yards and all three of Philadelphia's offensive touchdowns.

On a day when LeSean McCoy was stuffed for 22 yards on 19 carries, the rest of the Eagles offense stepped up, though Darren Sproles was relatively quiet after a huge performance in Week 2. That's the beauty of the Eagles: they have so many playmakers that it doesn't matter if one or two have an off day.

 

Suarez's Says:
By no means is this an easy game to decipher when making our NFL picks recommendations. The Eagles have yet to lose, but they've still looked shaky at times, and we're not about to count out the 49ers in spite of a slow start.

When push comes to shove, we're going all in on San Francisco.

The 49ers have been far and away the better defensive team thus far, and it's not like they're short on weapons offensively either. We think they have the personnel to score their fair share of points, and we think their defense will be able to make life a little more difficult on the potent Eagles offense this weekend. Take San Francisco to cover as home favorites for one of your sports picks this week. 

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