Add Chiefs +2 Against Broncos to Your NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 25, 2014 7:45 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2014 7:45 PM GMT

The Denver Broncos are picking up a little steam on the Week 13 NFL odds board as they prepare to visit their AFC West rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. Getting some of their defenders back would help.

 

Jason’s record after Week 12: 32-44-1 ATS, 14-20-1 Totals

Profit: minus-46.20 units

Are things returning somewhat to normal in the NFL? Our Week 12 football picks came pretty close to breaking even (minus-0.25 units), which feels like a victory given how crazy bad things have been this year. Underdogs, the traditional choice of NFL handicappers, got some of their mojo back last week at 9-6 ATS. And the UNDER followed suit with an 8-7 performance. Finally, some good, old-fashioned football.

We could be in for more of the same this Sunday night when the Kansas City Chiefs (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) host the Denver Broncos (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) in a very important AFC West matchup for both teams. The Broncos were 1.5-point favorites when NFL odds opened, and they remain in that vicinity as we go to press, with about 61 percent of bettors on Denver’s side. Expect the publicly-adored Broncos to pick up chalk as we get closer to kick-off.


Orange Mush
Most people would agree that Denver is the better team in this matchup. The advanced stats back up the current AFC West standings; Pro Football Reference has the Broncos pegged at plus-8.9 SRS, just ahead of the Chiefs at plus-7.8. Fresh DVOA stats are still pending from Football Outsiders at press time, but they had Denver at No. 1 overall (No. 2 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 27 special teams) through Week 11, while Kansas City was No. 6 overall (No. 7 offense, No. 14 defense, No. 7 special teams).

That’s all well and good, but the Broncos team that will take the field at Arrowhead isn’t quite the same Broncos team that’s trampled most of its opponents thus far. You already know about the injuries to CB Aqib Talib (hamstring) and LB Brandon Marshall (concussion). Both remain iffy for Sunday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC), as do CB Kayvon Webster and his injured shoulder.

Denver’s biggest advantages in Sunday’s matchup are on the defensive end – or at least they would be, if people were healthy enough. Pro Football Reference is already skeptical about the Orange Crush defense, giving it a big fat 0.0 SRS on the season. Now the battered Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last four games, including a pair of ugly road losses to the New England Partiots (+3) and the St. Louis Rams (+8).


The Friends of Mr Cairo
The Broncos also find themselves in a quandary with their special teams. PK Matt Prater was let go earlier this year after he was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy; Brandon McManus was given the job instead, but the sophomore is just 9-of-13 on field goals this year. Jay Feely and Connor Barth were both scheduled to audition for Denver on Tuesday.

Kansas City, meanwhile, hasn’t had any issues with Cairo Santos (15-of-17) thus far. And the Chiefs have the best kick return unit in the NFL, led by Knile Davis, who brought one back 99 yards to the house against the Rams in Week 8. So we’re going to call it even between these two teams when it comes to the defense/special teams mash-up.

Otherwise, the Chiefs have all the other NFL betting angles in their favor. They’ve had extra time to prepare after losing to the Oakland Raiders last Thursday, they’re relatively anonymous compared to Peyton Manning’s Broncos, and they’re doing very well under head coach Andy Reid, who was unfairly ridiculed in Philadelphia. We’ll take the home team and the points for a sizeable bet in our Week 13 NFL picks.


The Five Stars
Depth/Travel/Rest: KC
Defense/Special Teams: EVEN
Coaching: KC
Market Bias: KC
Betting Line Value: KC

Verdict: 4-star pick on KC


Free NFL Pick: Bet 7.6 units on the Chiefs +2 at BetOnline

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Check the props available on tonight's game at SBR Props

 

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