Add 49ers to Your Week 2 NFL Picks vs. Bears

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 11, 2014 5:36 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 11, 2014 5:36 PM GMT

The Chicago Bears head west to play the San Francisco 49ers on SNF and help christen the new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Let's take a look at where our capper believes the value lies for our NFL Picks.

What: NFL Week 2

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California (USA)

When: Sunday, September 14, 2014

Weather: The Weather Channel Forecast Santa Clara

Forecast: Partly cloudy - High 89°- Low 62° - 0% chance of rain; Wind: NNW at 11 mph

Time: 8:20 p.m. ET/7:20 p.m. CT/6:20 p.m. MT/5:20 p.m. PT

TV: NBC

Internet/Mobile Devices: NBC Sports Network Extra

Radio: SiriusXM

Home Feed (San Francisco): SiriusXM Channel 93 (Internet 805)

Road Feed (Chicago): SiriusXM Channel 92 (Internet 827)

National Feed: SiriusXM Channel 84 (Internet 63)

 

Point Spread Odds: 49ers -7 -110

Total: 49

Moneyline Odds: 49ers -310, Bears +260

Source: Westgate LV SuperBook (Las Vegas, Nevada, USA)

 

Where’s Santa Clara and How Did These Two Look in Their Openers?
The new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara will be a big part of the story on Sunday night, so know that Santa Clara is 40 miles southeast of San Francisco and the host San Francisco 49ers are 0-0 in these new digs headed into this Sunday Night Football matchup with the Chicago Bears. The weather will be warm in Santa Clara and the Bears will be worried to death about starting the new season off 0-2 but there’s not really going to be much Chicago (50/1 to win Super Bowl, 25/1 to win NFC, 5/2 to win NFC North, Westgate LV SuperBook) can do here with the 49ers (8/1 to win Super Bowl XLIX, 4/1 to win NFC, 5/4 to win NFC West) having the crowd and confidence advantage, the better head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and the much better offense and defense.

The visiting Bears (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) pretty much lost the game—and the entire season in my eyes—at home at Soldier Field last Sunday against the Buffalo Bills as EJ Manuel led underdog Buffalo to the big upset as Chicago (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS LY) and QB Jay Cutler (39 passing yards, 2TDs, 2 INTs) fell in OT, 23-20. San Francisco (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), on the other hand, was looking as good as the Bears were looking bad, taking out the Dallas Cowboys on the road (28-17) as the 49ers jumped out to a 28-3 lead and never looked back. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick (16/23, 201 yards, 2 TDs), RB Frank Gore (66 rushing yards) and TE Vernon Davis (4 receptions, 44 yards, 2 TDs) were all their old reliable selves in Big D, and San Francisco’s defense shut down Cowboys QB Tony Romo to start off the season on a positive note—something very important with teams like the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers also figuring to be near the top of the daunting NFC. One very, very good team isn’t going to make the NFC Championship game this season.

 

Do the Oddsmakers Have The Numbers on the Game Right?
Of course they do. At least that’s the theory but handicapping and speculating on future professional football scores involves either some Science or Art in predicting/guessing an eventual final score—and thus the point difference between the two teams—and we know they (oddsmakers) can’t hang a -9 or a -10 up for the 49ers against the Bears this early (Week 2) in the new season. For me, San Francisco seems at least 10 points better than this Bears team right now and that’s the art part. No power ratings, unless really refined, are going to reflect the vast difference between these two football teams at present time. The 6½ (Westgate LV SuperBook, Total 49) just doesn’t seem right for everything the Bears are up against. But then again, the Bears actually need a win more than the the 49ers do.

Chicago (+260 Money Line, Westgate) has its share of injury problems though, with TE Zach Miller (foot) and WR Marquess Wilson (collarbone) both on the IR and WRs Alshon Jeffery (hamstring, probable) and Brandon Marshall (ankle, questionable) both banged up as well as a couple of members of the OL. But San Francisco (-310 money line) has also been hit hard by injuries before the season really gets into swing with RBs Marcus Lattimore and Kendall Hunter, LB NaVorro Bowman, NT Glenn Dorsey (bicep) and suspended LB Aldon Smith all out and T Anthony Davis (knee) listed as questionable.

 

Examing Some Unique Game Propositions for This Bears-49ers Game
Besides the normal types of props, like Total Points for Bears (21 -110, Westgate) or Total Points for 49ers (28 -110), the sportsbook in Las Vegas formerly known as the LVH SuperBook—as well as sportsbooks in Costa Rica and the Caribbean and in Europe—offer a bunch of sometimes neat and sometimes beige (First Score of Game: TD -180, Any Other Score +160) prop bets for individual games, especially the prime time TV ones like this one.

Bears QB Cutler has a couple of props in his honor in Total Completions by Jay Cutler (22½ -110) and Total TD Passes by Jay Cutler (1½, Over -145). With Bears WR Marshall listed as questionable—but assumed to play from a betting standpoint in handicapping this particular prop—the Will Brandon Marshall Score a TD? ‘No’ at -125 (Yes +105) looks appetizing knowing of the injury and knowing of the 49ers defense. There is also a Total Rushing Yards for Matt Forte prop bet (78½ -110) and you know that Chicago will both use and need the versatile Forte (17 rushes, 82 yards; 8 receptions, 85 yards against Bills) here against San Francisco.

The 49ers have a couple of interesting player and team props for this highly-anticipated contest with the Bears, including two for QB Kaepernick: Total Completions by Colin Kaepernick (16½ -110) and Total TD Passes by Colin Kaepernick (1½, Over -130). There is also a prop bet for Total QB Sacks by Both Teams (4½, Under -125), but that’s a tough one as despite the reputations as having strong defenses,  only the 49ers (SF allowed 17 ppg LY) can probably lay claim to that these days and both Cutler and Kaepernick can both be pretty evasive.

 

Best Betting Approaches In This CBS Thursday Night Football Debut
The trends in this game, as well as the emotional and talent angles, strongly support the 49ers here. San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its L10 games overall and 11-3 ATS L14 vs. the Bears. The 49ers are also a perfect 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their L5 against Chicago and the Bears are a predictable 4-8 SU in their L12 in the City by the Bay, although lord only knows if we can still use that phrase with the 49ers stadium now being situated in Santa Clara. And the real kicker, as if you weren’t swayed enough by the above mess, is that San Francisco is 8-0 ATS in its L8 against the Bears at home —including a 32-7 pasting the last time these two teams met in 2012 as 3½ favorites. So, just take the better football team enjoying some extra buzz involved in the opening of its new home (Levi’s Stadium) while also being aware that its heated rival—the Seahawks—looked just as scary against the Packers in the season opener as they did in dismembering the Broncos in last season’s Super Bowl. Fear is always worth a fluid number of points, or portions of a point, and The Fear the Seahawks have created in the 49ers’ minds makes San Francisco play, (and theoretically score) about 2.2 points more than they normally would (for me) than if this Superteam called the Seattle Seahawks didn’t exist right now.

The Wise Man would probably grab that -6½ with the 49ers still out there as of now on the NFL odds and then wait until Sunday night right before game time and see if the line moves to the 49ers -7½ (or more), and then, if so, grab an equal amount on the Bears +7½ and then hope for San Francisco to somehow win by exactly 7 points, which would result in A Wonderful Little SNF Middle. Chicago (Next: at New York Jets, 9/22; Jets -1½, Westgate Week 3 Early Line) looked really bad at times against Buffalo last Sunday whereas the 49ers (NEXT: at Arizona Cardinals, 9/21; 49ers -1½) looked like they could turn it on and turn it off at will against the Cowboys in Arlington.

Host San Francisco laying the points (6½ or 7) and/or on the Money Line (-310) and Anytime TD Scorer bets for San Francisco’s trio of Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore seem all like relatively smart NFL Picks in a game that appears clearer in my mind than most of the other games on the NFL’s Week 2 schedule. The 49ers are a Top 4 team in the NFL while head coach Marc Trestman and the Bears only look to be in the Top 14-24 range with another very long season ahead of them. One team has visions the other heavy doubts. Embrace logic.

NFL Predictions: 49ers 28 Bears 16

Free NFL Picks: 49ers -7 at BookMaker

NFL Props Pick:  Vernon Davis Anytime Scorer (49ers) 

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