Add 49ers +10.5 vs. Seahawks to Your Week 15 NFL Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, December 12, 2014 6:01 PM GMT

In our perception/reality game of the week, I look to isolate a team with whom the public and line maker have fallen in love. At the same time, our reality team has clearly fallen out of favor with both the public and the line maker.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-10-) 4:25 ET
Using this contrary thinking provides highly profitable results in the NFL. For the season, my record on these games is 9-5 ATS. Last week, we had a ½ point loser when the New York Jets, a 5.5 point dog on the NFL odds, lost in OT on a pick 6 to the Minnesota Vikings. This week’s selection of San Francisco over Seattle is the epitome of perception/reality plays.

It is rare that a winning team such as San Francisco, at 7-6 SU, gets battered a bruised as much by the media as have the 49ers this week. But that is exactly what happened after the 49ers tanked in their 24-13 loss to Bay-area rival Oakland last week. That defeat came on the heels of a 19-3 home loss to this very Seattle team on Thanksgiving Day. In that first game against the Seahawks, San Francisco was outrushed 157-64, outgained 379-164, and had a -3 net turnover margin. Last week in their 24-13 loss to Oakland, they were again outgained 330-248. The -2 net turnover margin speaks loudly to this week’s Point Spread Prognosis article entitled Increase Accuracy in NFL Picks ATS with Turnover Margin Data. Now the media has once again begun to bash HC Harbaugh, as well as QB Kaepernick.

Defending Champions Seattle is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Today they enter on a 3-0 SU ATS surge, with victories by a combined score of 62-20 to quality teams Arizona, San Francisco, and Philly. In the 24-14 Philly win last week, Seattle outrushed the Eagles 188-57, and outgained them 440-139. Now Seattle has the best defense in the league, allowing only 274 YPG and 4.9 YP play. They continue to have the greatest dominance at the point of attack, outrushing foes by averages of 170/5.2 to 84/3.5. In addition, Seattle has covered the last 6 meetings in this series. As a further statement of their dominance, they have outgained their most recent 8 foes by 150 YPG.

Now consider that the Seahawks were a 1 point underdog just two weeks ago when they traveled to San Francisco. And you can see why there is as much as 6 points of line value playing the 49ers this week. Harbaugh has a solid history of success in this role at 14-3 ATS/SUFL, as well as being 4-0 SU ATS following back to back losses. With no love lost between these two coaches, I strongly urge you to play this very contrary double-digit underdog for your week 15 NFL picks

Free NFL picks: Niners +10.5 at 5Dimes

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