A Very Optimistic Look For Texans Have Us Pick Over When Betting On Their Season Wins

Houston Texans

Nikki Adams

Thursday, July 21, 2016 6:34 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 21, 2016 6:34 PM UTC

Are the Texans on the cusp of greatness or a flop? Books hang the Texans on an 8.5 season win total and we weigh in on their 2016 season and serve up our choice NFL pick in season win total betting.

Houston Texans 2015 Look Back
The Houston Texans won the AFC South crown behind a 9-7 SU season, ending a run of two consecutive titles by the Indianapolis Colts. There are those that would have Houston’s triumph down to the turmoil and uncertainty in the AFC South last term, not to mention the injury to Andrew Luck that set back the highly-fancied Indianapolis Colts.

Undoubtedly, the AFC South doesn’t stack up as well as some of the other divisions in the NFL but it would be unfair to take anything away from the Texans and what they accomplished in 2015. Certainly, Bill O’Brien and his lads aren’t going to be apologising.

In any event, bookmakers hang the Texans on an 8.5 season win total for 2016 with the OVER favoured at -130 and the UNDER matched at +100 NFL odds at Bet365. In the context of the AFC South, they are the second favourites to win the division at +190 NFL odds with Bodog, behind the Indianapolis Colts, who are matched at +140 NFL Odds. The way the market stacks up it is shaping up to be a two-horse race between this pair for 2016.

Now, most NFL bettor bettors would lean towards the Colts given their star quarterback Andrew Luck and his proven track record of success. Texans look towards a new era with Brock Osweiler as the signal caller but he’s largely unproven as a starter, which is what arguably takes the shine off a second straight AFC South crown coming back to Houston. That and the fact that John Elway and the Broncos didn’t even blink when he signed with the Texans, let him go on his merry way they did.

It’s hard to say what to expect of the Texans with Osweiler at the helm. Heck, about Osweiler alone. Until proven otherwise, there must be room for optimism. It’s only fair. It’s the same courtesy extended to most that arrive in the NFL brimming with promise and potential.

He’s not shown an inability to do the job. On paper, he does look the part – not too bad on the eye as well. Granted a lot of what he did last season with the Broncos – which ultimately courted the fancy of the Texans’ organisation – was down to the best defense in the league backing him up. Well, the Texans’ defense is not too shabby (that’s putting it mildly). So while the concern that John Elway and the Broncos let him go so easily is a viable one, it doesn’t mean the Texans have made a mistake.

In Denver, he was a backup. In Houston, he’s the supposed starter. It’s a different mind-set to have in the offseason knowing you’re the guy in charge rather than the guy waiting in the wing, hoping to get a shot. Osweiler has been preparing and studying since penning his lucrative $72 million dollar contract in March. He has to be a damn sight better than Ryan Mallet and others that took to the carousel last year, surely.

It’s all relative in the end. This is but a speculative piece, an early game-by-game breakdown of the Houston Texans and their 2016 in order to serve up the best NFL pick towards the 8.5 season win total. Obviously, this comes before preseason camp and preseason games and doesn’t account for any key injuries that may happen and may, potentially, have an impact on how the season actually unfolds. So take with a large grain of salt, but we’ve got to start somewhere, right.


Houston Texans 2016 NFL schedule Game-by-Game Predictions At A Glance

Week 1 vs. Chicago, Sunday, September 11
This is a must-win game for Brock Osweiler if he’s to quell his naysayers, who question whether he’s any good at all never mind worth the $72 million price tag. Chicago Bears are a beatable side, let’s face it. They’ve been struggling for three seasons now. Jay Cutler is as unreliable as they come and until proven otherwise he’s not going to strike fear in the Texans’ locker room. As it is, the Texans defense should have a field day with the Bears and Osweiler needs to hold his end of the bargain on offense.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 1-0


Week 2 vs. Kansas City, Sunday, September 18
This is the ultimate revenge game of the season after the way the Kansas City Chiefs decimated the Texans in the wildcard round of the playoffs. J.J. Watt alone should be a wrecking ball. On that score, we have the Texans finding redemption at home.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 2-0


Week 3 vs. New England (away), Thursday, September 22
Last season, Brock Osweiler led the Broncos to an improbable win over the then defending Super Bowl champions New England Patriots, coming from behind to pull off the upset at Mile High. This time, Brock is on their turf at Foxboro and at the helm of a different team. Perhaps, fortunately, he won’t be staring down Tom Brady but his understudy Jimmy Garropolo. That levels the playing field a bit, you’d think. Makes this a tossup game even. Then again, this is a game of minds as well – the clash between Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien, one that the former won behind a 27-6 win in Houston last season.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 2-1


Week 4 vs. Tennessee, Sunday, October 2
The Tennessee Titans present a winnable game and the first divisional rival the Houston Texans face in 2016. Home advantage, better defense and more established team working a familiar playbook should have the edge over a divisional foe that is very much in the development phase.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 3-1


Week 5 vs. Minnesota (away), Sunday, October 9
The Minnesota Vikings will welcome the Houston Texans to their new stadium in week 5 of the NFL betting season. Many NFL pundits are talking about this matchup as an opportunity for Teddy Bridgewater to show the Texans what they missed out on when they could have drafted him in 2014. Personally, that’s old news. Everyone has moved on from that, really. Essentially, this is an intriguing matchup between two defenses that figure to factor in the league in 2016. It should be a close game and one that could go either way. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise us if the Texans did eke out the win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 4-1


Week 6 vs. Indianapolis, Sunday, October 16 PT
The first primetime slot of the season pits the Indianapolis Colts with the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. It should be an interesting clash between the top two AFC South favourites. Texans have home advantage as well a much better defense than the Colts do.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 5-1


Week 7 vs. Denver (away), Monday, October 24
Brock Osweiler’s homecoming is going to be a game many circle on the NFL schedule. Heck, NFL schedulers appropriately give it the Monday Night Football slot. Nobody is going to miss this nationally televised reunion. By and large, the prediction is for a tough day at Mile High for the Texans. Hard to argue with that score.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-2


Week 8 vs. Detroit, Sunday, October 30
The Detroit Lions are hard to pinpoint without Calvin Johnson, so it’s fair to say they don’t strike as formidable a pose as they might have with Megatron doing his thing on the field. There was speculation about Arian Foster signing with the Lions, but that’s not to be as he’s gone with the Dolphins instead. So the subplot of a reunion is no longer a factor here.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 6-2

Week 9 BYE


Week 10 vs. Jacksonville (away), Sunday, November 13
The Houston Texans take on divisional foes Jacksonville Jaguars for the first time in 2015. Last term, Brian Hoyer and the Texans swept the series with the Jaguars all while outscoring the Jaguars 61-26. The Jaguars have bolstered their roster in the offseason so a win at Ever Bank is not a certain bet. Still, the Texans defense is better and that could be the decider.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 7-2


Week 11 vs. Oakland (away), Monday, November 21
Back-to-back road games is a tough assignment particularly seeing as the Texans will be flitting from Florida to Mexico City to play this game. At the same time, it’s a trek for the Raiders to Mexico City as well so the playing field is level. Neutral ground is hard to pinpoint and it remains to be seen which side rises to the occasion. This is a complete tossup in many ways and should be a close one.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 8-2


Week 12 vs. San Diego, Sunday, November 27
if 2015 proved anything it’s that Philip Rivers can’t do it all. This game is only going to underscore that notion as the Texans defense run riot over the Chargers at home. On the flipside, the Chargers defense doesn’t look to be capable of troubling Brock Osweiler.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 9-2


Week 13 vs. Green Bay (away), Sunday, December 4
Three things to consider: Aaron Rogers, Lambeau Field and the frigid cold of December. Not a recipe for success for any team, never mind one that includes formidable J.J. Watt and a stout defense.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 9-3


Week 14 vs. Indianapolis (away), Sunday, December 11
The Texans descend on Andrew Luck and the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in week 14 of the NFL season. Last term, the pair split the series with each side winning on the road. It’s a tossup and while there is plenty to tip the scale towards the visitors, we’re giving it to the Colts. So long as Luck is healthy, the Colts will be looking for redemption. Plus, at this point in the season, the premium on the win is going to be huge if there are playoff implications.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 9-4


Week 15 vs. Jacksonville, Sunday, December 18
The Texans welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 15 to Houston. The Jaguars are a team on the up in the eyes of many NFL bettors, which means they could make it interesting. Potentially, turn it into a shootout. But this is a matchup that the Texans and J.J. Watt in particular are dialled into, which tips the balance towards the hosts.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 10-4

Week 16 vs. Cincinnati, Saturday, December 24
The Cincinnati Bengals are a tough team to beat during the regular season. It’s the playoffs where they struggle. Oh, that and Andy Dalton does struggle in primetime. The other Dalton, 1pm-ET-Dandy Andy is quite reliable and can be counted on winning. In any event, this will be one of the toughest games the Texans play since their bye week. Last season, they surprised the Bengals 10-6 on Monday Night Football in Cincy. They can do so again with home edge.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 11-4


Week 17 vs Tennessee (away), Sunday, January 1
By week 17 it would be a total shocker if the Titans had anything play for in the broad spectrum of the season. The Texans, meanwhile, should be in the frame for a playoff spot. Depending whether this is a must-win game or an opportunity to rest starters the result could change. Then again, one has the feeling that even a second-tier Texans could beat the Titans.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 12-4


NFL Projected Season Win Totals for Texans: By our game-by-game rundown the Texans finish 12-4 on the season, and, potentially, even clinch a second AFC South crown unless the Colts fare better. To be fair, it’s a very optimistic outlook. Perhaps, even, overly generous considering Osweiler is yet unproven as a starter in the Texans scheme. The point is not whether they actually finish with the exact same mark that we’re envisioning, rather that they have a very good chance to crack the OVER 8.5 season win total that is being projected by bookmakers. As such, we’re banking on the OVER at -130 as our choice NFL pick with Bet365.


Free NFL Picks: Over 8.5 at -130 at Bet365

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