Swinger did the splits again with a 2-2 record against the NFL odds but oddly enough the totals that had been vexing him all season went a perfect 2-0 ATS, what will week 5 bring?
2015 NFL Record (9-7 ATS)
I had this sinking feeling in my gut that my penchant for laying the lumber was clouding my vision. Let’s face it you’re either a guy who leans towards grabbing the points or is inclined towards laying them. The trick is to eliminate that predisposition and analyze each game with due diligence and no bias. While I will plead guilty to overestimating the Seahawks as they were lucky to escape the clutches of the Lions thanks to a blown call by the refs (didn’t make a wit of difference in terms of the cover as they were laying 9 ½) I was stunned by the Buffalo Bills’ outright loss to the Giants at home.
On a positive note my totals that had flaming faster than gasoline in a blast furnace came around last week with the over in the Rams/Cardinals game clicking as did the under in the Packers/Niners snooze-fest. Let’s see which opportunities await and see if we can sweep in our NFL picks for Week 5.
Rams vs. Packers (-8 ½)
At the risk of reverting back to my chalky ways I think the Packers are in a tremendous spot to roll over a Rams squad that scored a shocking road win against a previously undefeated Cardinals team last week. The Packers enjoy the biggest home field advantage in the league which has statistically proven to give them a five to six point advantage when they play on the frozen (or unfrozen) tundra of Lambeau Field.
A reliable computer model has given the Packers an 84% chance of winning this one and has predicted the score to be 33-18 which, if true, would give Green Bay clear sailing to an easy ATS cover as the NFL odds makers are hanging the Pack as 8 ½ to 9 point favorites. But computer models are far from perfect which is why we dissect the matchups and try to exploit every advantage possible. Aaron Rodgers makes it fairly easy to plunk money on the Packers every time they take the field in front of the fan friendlies. Aside from the 2013 game against the Bears when Rodgers was injured early the Packers have won 20 consecutive regular season game with Rodgers at the helm by an average of 16 points. The Rams will try to keep pace with their talented rookie Todd Gurley carrying the load but they will abandon the run and go to the air once they fall behind. The Rams are coming off a stunning victory in the desert and are due for a letdown. Here are some stats to chew on:
Green Bay has covered five straight games and are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Rodgers has been astounding at home as evidenced by his 48 touchdown passes against zero interceptions over his last 18 games in Lambeau.
The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in October.
The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up win.
NFL Pick: Play the Packers -8 ½ at JustBet
Total 43 ½ - Broncos vs. Raiders
At first blush I thought of the improved Broncos’ defense against the Raiders, of all teams, and said to myself that this total may be on the low side. But we must put preconceived notions aside if we are to make money in the here and now. I’ve got a news flash for you – the Raiders are pretty decent offensively now that they have a legitimate quarterback.
The Raiders are actually tied with Denver for points scored averaging 24.2 per game and Oakland’s offensive line has done a better than decent job protecting Derek Carr. Yes, the Broncos are sack-masters and lead the league with 18 on the season but in order to get to Carr I see Denver bringing in linebackers on blitz packages which gives Amari Cooper more space to do what he does best. A few stats to consider:
Over is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games overall.
Over is 7-1 in Raiders last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 vs. AFC.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last five games in Week 5.
NFL Pick: Play Over 43 ½ at Pinnacle