The NFL season is quickly approaching as final details on how this campaign will play out are being finalized between teams and the player’s association.
COVID-19 has disrupted a significant amount of our lives, but football is poised to overcome the virus. That means we’re hunting early lines to capitalize our earnings on.
Finding value on the NFL Most Valuable Player award is a difficult task because we’re essentially predicting what only quarterbacks will do.
As stellar as so many players are, there’s a reason the top non-quarterback in the MVP list is Christian McCaffrey at +3300; quarterbacks are just that much more impactful.
We’re looking at one lock from the two favorites, one dark horse from the second tier, and a longshot with huge upside.
Lock: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
The two favored MVP candidates should come as no surprise, as the $500 million man, Patrick Mahomes, and the reigning winner Lamar Jackson are sitting as the NFL’s royalty.
Both are exquisite players and deserving of the heightened expectations. But it’s been Mahomes’ world since the 2019 NFL playoffs began, and his reign is only beginning.
The dynamic playmaker has already accumulated 76 touchdowns to only 18 interceptions in 30 starts over the last two years. He’ll be fully healthy this year, and is surrounded by one of the best surrounding casts in the league.
His ability to create game-changing plays with an absurdly good arm, understanding of defenses, and natural inclination to extend outside of the pocket, is Hall of Fame-worthy.
The Chiefs have an excellent roster again and the coaching staff is elite, if not the best in the league. Expectations for them to win the Super Bowl again are fair, and if Mahomes has another 5,000-yard season, he’ll very likely win the MVP as he brings top-notch entertainment to go with the production.
Dark Horse: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
While I can see the argument for Brady in a high-powered offense where his impact will be clear, and that Dak might take a step forward with CeeDee Lamb and Mike McCarthy running the Cowboys, they’re not as good as Wilson.
And we know that Wilson has a well-earned reputation as a superstar who’s carrying his team to higher levels. The narrative is in place already for Wilson to pull the upset and win MVP, as long as Seattle can make the playoffs. They should; Arizona isn’t ready to compete and the Rams are spiraling downward.
Seattle’s defense is solid with the Jamal Adams addition and Wilson will carry the offense to do enough, and he’ll do it in exciting fashion.
Wilson’s averaged over 30 touchdowns for the last five years, with only 42 interceptions in that time. He’s supremely efficient while maintaining explosiveness despite a limited supporting cast. He’s a great bet at this price.
Longshot: Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
If you see a trend towards playmaking gunslingers, it’s because the excitement factor matters. There’s little chance, in my opinion, that another type of quarterback wins the MVP this year. And I see both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson sitting with +2500 odds as great longshot bets.
I chose Wentz because the Eagles are in a better situation to win big. While Watson is better and more reliable, Wentz is now supported by a more reliable staff and set of blockers, plus I like his receivers enough to invest into the Eagles offense. The Texans will win because of Watson but are ultimately capped by a limited roster.
The Eagles have everything needed to make a deep playoff run. Wentz’s efficiency has improved, and he’s a very good starter when his accuracy is on. Even the upgrades around him will keep him in the conversation. A jump in play plus those additions can make him a terrific sleeper value.