A 3-Team Cheeseheads-Champions-Chiefs Parlay For Your NFL Week 6 Sunday Picks?

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 11, 2017 2:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2017 2:00 PM UTC

Let’s try a 3-teamer from Sunday’s NFL Week slate backing three chalk picks at current prices which seem just fair enough to give it a go and numbers which should continue to rise.

NFL Week 6—Sunday, October 15, 2017Parlay Leg 1—Green Bay Packers -3

US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1 pm ET (FOX)

The Packers head to Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon to face the Vikings in a huge Week 6 NFC North battle from US Bank Stadium (FieldTurf) with both teams sitting at 3-1 in divisional play but with Stefon Diggs (Questionable) and Minnesota (19.8 ppg, #14) needing the game more sitting at 3-2 in the NFC North along with Detroit (3-2 in NFC North. Total Packers wager amounts ($5,037) were much higher than the host Vikings ($1,654) but this was a game late to the betting board and had slightly moved to (Green Bay minus) 3½ at many sportsbooks by late Tuesday and expect much more Packers action midweek and up until kickoff with many eyeballs to be on this one (Average Bet Size: GB $69.00, MIN $24.33).

The Trends show the Packers (27.4 ppg, #6) are 10-4 ATS their L14 overall, 7-2 ATS L9 vs the NFC, 19-6-1 ATS the L26 in the scary month of October and 46-22 ATS vs. the NFC North while the Vikings are 9-1 ATS L10 at Home vs. Teams with Winning Road Records. The Under is 17-4 in Vikings last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. The Under is 17-4 L21 Vikings games vs. Teams with Winning Records and 4-1 the L5 in this rivalry while the Over is 10-1 the L11 Green Bay games vs. the NFC and the Over is 11-5-1 the L17 meetings in Minneapolis and but almost all of those games were played in a different venue. The Home team is 9-4 ATS the L13 in this series with the Underdog going 4-1 ATS the L5. Some may prefer plugging in Green Bay on the Moneyline (-185, Heritage) here instead of laying the 3 or more. Jordy Nelson (Probable, Hamstring) is still hurt for the Cheeseheads but expect him to go while Davante Adams (23 Receptions, 285 yards, 4 TDs) picking up the slack for the Pack who can create some distance between themselves and the NFC North pack here with a Win. Note Rodgers’ spectacular and profitable 37-17 ATS mark vs. the NFC North (68.5%), including an ATS Win vs. Chicago in Week 4. Embrace logic.

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Packers 30 Vikings 22


Parlay Leg 2—New England Patriots -9½

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, 1 pm ET (CBS)

Tom Brady (52-38 ATS vs. AFC East) and the defending Super Bowl-champion Patriots head to Jersey (What exit?) in Week 6 to face the Jets in an AFC East meeting from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday afternoon. The series Trends here strangely enough favor the J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets!, who have gone 7-1 ATS the L8 and 5-0 ATS the L5 at Home against mastermind Head Coach Bill Belichick (174-128-8 ATS) and New England, meaning now is as good a time as any to buy a skid of baked beans, a dozen packs of Wet Wipes and to head for the basement shelter. So why walk into the face of the Trends? Because following the Trends here would mean having to blindly back the Jets and with two unsuspected Losses already in the W/L column (KC, CAR), Uncle Bill will have his troops ready to go in the Garden State, even if TE Rob Gronkowski (Questionable, Thigh) still can’t put on the pads up and play this weekend.

The current Consensus breakdown at time of publishing early Wednesday shows the Patriots barely edging the Jets in Total Wagers Placed so far (73-68), but Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman (ACL) and New England (2-3 ATS) had gotten 68.9% of the wagered Offshore money ($7,353) to the Jets’ 31.1% ($3,326) with the average Bet Size again favoring the chalks, $42.50 to $19.80. The Point Spread in this game—which currently ranges from 9½ (BetOnline) to 11 (+115, 5Dimes)—should continue to rise from Wednesday until kickoff on Sunday, so if you plan on backing New England, best get down now while any potential New York AFC (3-2 ATS) backers may be best off waiting for the best late plus-number on Sunday. Who wants to back the Jets and how many will use the Patriots in Parlays and Teasers is a good question to ask yourself and this number could possibly hit 12. New England lost outright, 26-20 in this spot last year to the Airplanes and will remember that (Revenge) and should come in focused to move to 4-2 and not 3-3 and a sudden, mid-October crisis mode. And we all know we can’t have Uncle Bill mad before Halloween.

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Patriots 33 Jets 13 Parlay Leg 3—Kansas City Chiefs -4

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri, 4:25 pm ET (CBS)

The Chiefs  have easily seen more money bet on them (Consensus) ($117,564) still early (late Tuesday) in the week at reporting Offshore sportsbooks than any other team with Kansas City seeing 89.6% of the action so far and an average Bet Size of $404 to $78 for the Steelers for their NFL Week 6 AFC showdown at Arrowhead Stadium In Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs have also outnumbered Pittsburgh in the Number of Wagers Placed (291-172. 62.9%), and so early in the betting week still, it’s hard to not see this Point Spread, now at -4½ in most places after opening at (KC minus) 3½ continue to rise with the Sharps and General Public possibly liking and seeing the same things here. Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers (13/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) suffered a really nasty setback at Home at Heinz Field in The Steel City in Week 5, losing to the Jaguars, 30-9 (PIT -7, 41) while Kansas City remained unbeaten (5-0), defeating the Texans in Houston on Sunday Night Football, 42-34 (KC -2, 44½).

The Under is 21-7 L28 Steelers Road games and 5-0 in Pittsburgh games this season, but with the roadrunner-quick Hill, Toledo Rookie Kareem Hunt and now De’Anthony Thomas (above) expecting to get in on the act, the Chiefs (Overs 4-1) are too capable of scoring points in quick spurts, as the 4th Quarter on SNF in Week 5 proved with Kansas City scoring 19 4th Quarter points and the Texans answering with 21 of their own. With this number at 4 at only one book right now (Pinnacle) and Chiefs money likely to continue to come in—the Spread is already at -5 at Bovada and Bodog—locking in on Kansas City at -4, even if buying a half-point is required (and an option), seems wise. And should the first two legs in the 1 pm ET/10 am PT wave of NFL games win, there could be a short period (maximum 25 minutes) of time (with the 4:25 pm ET kickoff here) where a Hedge could be made to ensure a profit from this parlay with bettors maybe having the option of getting the Steelers at +5½, 6, +6½ and maybe even +7 which could create a couple of Win-Win or Win-Push Middle situations should Kansas City end up winning by 5, 6 or 7 points, depending on where the line closes of course.

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Chiefs 31 Steelers 23Best Lines Offered: at Pinnacle
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