76% Successful NFL Betting System: Rushing & ATS Differentials

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 11, 2015 7:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2015 7:10 PM UTC

Take advantage of this astute handicapper's betting insight regarding NFL teams, rushing margins and point spread differentials. Applying his tips will certainly improve your record.

Rule Changes in NFL
In recent years, rule changes have promoted scoring in the NFL. Quarterbacks are being protected more now than ever with the fear of head injuries. Much is the same for receivers, who are allowed to run more freely in the secondary due to stricter rules preventing holding. In much the same way as with QBs, manhandling the receiver following the catch is greatly discouraged through a series of similar rule changes. Most kickers are able to convert a field goal from 50 or more yards with ease. All of these changes have aided the offense in recent years. As a result, scoring has advanced from 43 PPG up to 46 PPG in recent seasons. 

With rule changes meant to provide more freedom of movement by the offense, and more west coast passing offenses proliferating, it would make sense that there was less focus on running the football in the NFL. That is a misconception, for the teams who run the football the best and control the line of scrimmage the most are often the most successful. As linebackers and safeties creep closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, it opens up the passing game. In the fourth quarter, there remains no more effective offensive weapon than a team who can control the ball and the clock, while protecting the lead. The advantage of moving the football overland also translates into helping the defense. More plays by the offense means fewer plays by the opponent. That in turn translates into a fresher defense, and fewer possessions for the opponent to score. While the game continues to open up for the casual viewer, the astute handicapper recognizes the advantage of backing a team who is successful running the football. 


NFL Betting System
Since the year 2000, I have tracked every NFL box score, noting the difference in rushing margin for a team. The results have been astoundingly consistent, and highly profitable. 

Any NFL team who outrushes their opponent by 30 or more yards has covered the point spread at a 76% rate since the year 2000.

This situation consistently produces approximately 170 plays per year. Clearly this is a back fitted formulation. Our job as a NFL handicapper is to determine which of the opponents on the 16 game card will have the advantage at the point of attack. 

To do this, we must defer our handicap to statistical analysis. Key categories to analyze are raw rushing yards for a team’s offense and defense, the yards per rush allowed for a team’s offense and defense, and finally the number of average carries per game both on offense and defense by each team. When those numbers match up, greatly favoring one side over the other, you can rest assured that your selected team will outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards. 

That’s when it’s time to play with confidence and “run to the bank” with your profits. 

The statistical analysis outlined above is used when making my NFL picks usually referred to as “NFL Steamroller of the Week” and “NFL Crusher of the Week.” Watch for both of those this year on this website!

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