We are down to the last quarter of the 2015 NFL regular season and the NFL betting odds have had time to stew since the sportsbooks sent them out. What looks good or what looks bad?
Before we head down that road, let's do a quick recap from last week. Though the books had some exposure with the volume of Green Bay wagers, the money was on Detroit, who lost on a Hail Mary, which also affected the spread. The public had good wins on Seattle, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Arizona (last two saw late sharp action against).
However, one game turned the tide on all aspects and that was New England being upset by Philadelphia. Not only was it a huge spread winner for the books, but it blew out money line wagers, parlay and teaser cards like Kayne West talking about Taylor Swift.
Let's move ahead to NFL teasers, as football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. While I present a four-team teaser weekly, break these out into two or three-team teasers, which increases your chances of winning, as I have actually been correct overall on 36 of 51 choices. (One Push)
San Diego +16 Teaser Odds
With the way the San Diego has been playing, this might require some Tums, but I still really like all these points. Kansas City is on a sick 6-0 SU and ATS run and could well be ready for a letdown. It was just a few weeks ago the Chiefs made mincemeat of the Chargers at their joint 33-3. Does human nature take over and Andy Reid's squad let's up a little, while San Diego shows some pride despite a dismal season and rises up and is at least competitive? For NFL picks on teaser number I think so, and we cross the threshold of key figures 10 and 13. Lastly, the Bolts are 20-1 against a teaser line in road games versus teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season.
Carolina -1.5 Teaser Odds
This choice also comes with a little trepidation for sports picks, because now that Carolina has won division, they might let up a little, but if coach Ron Rivera does what I think, he will push the right buttons to keep the Panthers on course to wrap up top seed in the NFC. With the way Atlanta is playing, it appears inconceivable they would find a way to upset Carolina, thus, anything other than a one-point outcome places us in a very good situation. The Panthers are 16-0 against a teaser line when the line is +0.5 to -5.5 the last three seasons.
New England +3 Teaser Odds
Ugly loss for New England last week. This week on the teaser line we are able to flip the Patriots from field goal favorites to three-point underdogs. New England has not lost three in a row since 2002 and I'm hard-pressed to believe that is going to happen here against a Houston club who is playing better, but remains ordinary at 6-6. Here is something to consider, conference road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (normal spread), after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, are 58-24 ATS, winning by an average of 4.7 points a contest.
Denver -1 Teaser Odds
Great spot for the Broncos just needing to win the game. This is something the Denver has been rather proficient at against Oakland, having completed this task eight consecutive times. The Broncos have the necessary tools to complete the mission with the NFL's best defense, a suddenly strong running game and Brock Osweiler playing under control and limiting miscues. The same cannot be said by the Raiders who have turned the pigskin over at least twice in four of their past five outings. Let's also take into account Oakland's loss to Kansas City last week and we uncover underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (normal spread), in a game involving two offensive teams averaging 335 to 370 YPG, after outgaining last opponent by 100 or more total yards, are just 6-15 ATS, losing by 9.7 PPG.