6-Point Teasers That Add Value To Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 8:47 PM GMT

Hopefully you have been following this article all season or a good part of it, as we try to assemble six-point NFL teasers against the sportsbooks' NFL odds and hopefully place winning picks.

Last week we swept the board at 4-0 and anyone making NFL picks could have been part of profit potential, as we have nailed at least three teaser winners in 13 of 15 weeks.

Besides our choices, all wagering outlets took a hit as heavily bet teams like Seattle, Green Bay and Arizona shredded the sportsbooks. Offshore outlets and their Nevada counterparts also had to payout on parlays and teaser cards with squads Pittsburgh, New England and Kansas City all coming through.

Let's move ahead to NFL teasers, as football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. While I present a four-team teaser weekly, break these out into two or three-team teasers, which increases your chances of winning, as I have actually been correct overall on 43 of 58 choices (One Push).

Here are my teaser picks for NFL Week 16 and consider Heritage, who has some of the best NFL odds for teasers.

 

Dallas +12 Teaser Odds
Backing the Cowboys is not so much a play on them as it is a play against Buffalo. The Bills brought in Rex Ryan to be their coach and while he's a good salesman, his coaching record the last several years speaks for itself. With Buffalo favored by six on standard side action, we able to move Dallas across key numbers like seven and 10 points. The Cowboys problems have been well documented but when I see Jerry's kids are only losing by 2.1 points a game on the road and the Bills margin of victory at home is +0.5, have to like where this teaser falls.

 

San Francisco +15 Teaser Odds
San Francisco visits Detroit and on the opening NFL odds they were sent out at +7.5 and they were swiftly jettisoned to +9. As teaser bettor this caught my attention, realizing the 49ers had gone past numbers like 10 and 14. The Lions have certainly played much better since returning from London and ownership taking a more active role, but this is still a losing team and what is their motivation against a team like the Niners? Doing research I found road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (standard line) being outscored by seven or more points a game, after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games are 11-2 ATS. Gladly take the extra digits.

 

Kansas City -6.5 Teaser Odds
The Chiefs are on a major roll at 8-0 and 7-1 ATS and are 12.5-point home favorites over Cleveland. For teaser bettors, this is ideal number, taking Kansas City below 10 and 7. The Browns away from home this season are 1-6 and 2-5 ATS, scoring a paltry 15.4 points a game. During this winning streak, Kansas City is averaging 29.5 PPG, with an average margin of victory of 18.7 PPG and not once has it fallen below seven points. The Chiefs come into this contest 8-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 2013 and most importantly, the margin of victory has been 11.6 points.

 

Cincinnati +9.5 Teaser Odds
I look at this Monday night game as having real value for teaser action. We start with two backup quarterbacks, one who will be facing Cincinnati, who has the top scoring defense in the NFL (17.4 PPG) and the other signal caller taking on Denver's No. 4 scoring defense at 18.5. While Brock Osweiler has done a number of things well in place of Peyton Manning, the Broncos are still only scoring 20.6 PPG with him at the helm. There is less a book on AJ McCarron, but the best aspect of his play last week was no turnovers. With these defenses and the Bengals 7-0 ATS on the road this year, unless Cincinnati makes several mistakes, hard to imagine this being more than touchdown outcome on the Monday night finale.