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49ers vs. Packers Divisional Round Picks: Rodgers Clashes with Kryptonite Again

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49ers vs. Packers Divisional Round Picks: Rodgers Clashes with Kryptonite Again
Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers carries the ball after a reception during the first half against the Detroit Lions. Rey Del Rio/Getty Images via AFP.

Will the San Francisco 49ers continue to stymie Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs? We dive into the matchup with our 49ers-Packers Divisional Round NFL picks.

Green Bay welcomes San Francisco fresh off its first-round bye. Rodgers hopes to take advantage of the home field to avoid going 0-4 against the 49ers in his playoff career. 

San Francisco will look to keep its momentum going after defeating the Dallas Cowboys 23-17 as an underdog last weekend in the wild-card round. 

Here are my picks and predictions for the Divisional Round matchup between the 49ers and Packers (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

49ers vs. Packers Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 22, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Location:
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Weather: 20 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 17 mph winds

49ers vs. Packers Odds Analysis

This spread opened at 5.5 in favor of Green Bay and has stayed relatively flat across the market, even with 72% of the cash and 67% of the tickets backing the Packers. 

The total opened at 48 but has dropped to 47 at most books. The public and sharps seem to disagree with 58% of the tickets backing the Over but 55% of the handle on the Under. 

49ers Betting Preview

Record: 11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS, 8-10 O/U
Key Players: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, EDGE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner
Notable Trend: 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as road underdogs

San Francisco continues to make its games interesting. After a come-from-behind 27-24 victory against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18, they nearly blew a 23-7 lead last weekend against the Dallas Cowboys. 

Injuries continue to plague this roster. Bosa is in concussion protocol, and Warner was dealing with an ankle injury but was able to practice in full on Wednesday. Additionally, Garoppolo has hand and shoulder injuries but will play on Saturday. 

The good news is that the 49ers are a run-centric team. Running back Elijah Mitchel and hybrid Samuel are healthy, along with Kittle. 

Packers Betting Preview

Record: 13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS, 8-9 O/U
Key Players: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, RB Aaron Jones, CB Jaire Alexander
Notable Trend: Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games

Green Bay enters this matchup rested and healthy. Returning is stud linebacker Za’Darius Smith, Alexander, and All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari.

Offensively, Rodgers doesn’t need any introduction. He had a stellar year, with 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions, grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 1 quarterback. 

San Francisco’s weak secondary will have to contend with Adams, who forms an intimidating battery with Rodgers. Adams had 123 receptions and 1,553 receiving yards this season. 

49ers vs. Packers Picks

49ers +5.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
Under 47.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ★★★★
Packers team total Under 26.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★
Kittle anytime TD (+195 via FanDuel) ★★★
Same-game Parlay: Devante Adams (-140) Elijah Mitchel (+115) George Kittle (+195) anytime touchdowns = +1200 via FanDuel ★

SEE ALSO: Divisional Round Picks Roundup

49ers vs. Packers Predictions

49ers +5.5 (-110)

These two teams met in California in Week 3, with Green Bay prevailing 30-28 on a last-second field goal. 

The 49ers pose a significant threat to the Packers in the rematch due to their greatly improved run game. 

Green Bay’s run defense ranked 28th by DVOA – a significant problem when facing the 49ers' creative run-centric offense led by the two-headed monster of Mitchell and Samuel. 

We saw how vulnerable the Packers' run defense can be when the Cleveland Browns gashed them for 219 rushing yards in Week 16 - seemingly running at will in the second half of that contest. Similarly, the Packers' defense ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends. That's another big problem when facing Kittle.

San Francisco understands its secondary is a liability. With no shutdown corners, No. 1 wide receivers routinely eat against the 49ers. Adams shredded the Niners to the tune of 132 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

I’m expecting 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan to implement a heavy dose of the run game to eat up the clock and keep Rodgers off the field. No team does this better, which is why I’m backing the 49ers at +5.5.

Under 47.5 (-108)

The 49ers and Packers rank 29th and 32nd, respectively, in offensive pace of play, so we should expect slow and methodical play calling. We’ve already discussed that the 49ers will run the ball as much as possible to keep the Packers' offense sidelined. 

The return of Smith and Alexander is a boon for the Packers, shoring up the run defense and secondary, and we can expect Bosa and Warner to return for the 49ers.

In Week 3, this game was 17-14 and trending to the Under entering the fourth quarter. The teams combined for 27 points in the final frame to cash the Over. I don’t believe we’ll see that explosion again as both squads will look to wear each other down in the trenches.

I lean to the Under for our 49ers-Packers picks but will be waiting to enter the bet closer to game time. The public loves to root for primetime Overs, so I’ll be looking to snag a 48 or better on Saturday evening.

Packers Under 26.5 (-115)

I anticipate the 49ers being able to execute their run-heavy game plan to keep the Packers sidelined and limit their opportunities. 

According to PFF, Rodgers' passer rating drops to 67.9 when under pressure. If Bosa can return, look for him to wreak havoc and keep Rodgers off-balance.

If these two factors come to fruition, the Packers will struggle to score points.

Kittle anytime TD (+195)

As mentioned earlier, the Packers struggle to defend tight ends, allowing 51.2 yards per game to the position. 

In the Week 3 meeting, Kittle had seven receptions for 92 yards. Despite missing three games this season, he caught a career-high six touchdowns and is always a threat in the red zone. 

If the 49ers are near the goal line, Jimmy G will look his way. 

Same-game Parlay: Devante Adams (-140) Elijah Mitchel (+115) George Kittle (+195) anytime touchdowns = (+1200)

Though anticipating this game to go Under its total, these teams will undoubtedly find the end zone.

Adams is Rodgers' favorite target, catching 11 touchdowns in the regular season. Mitchell scored in four of his last five games, and we know the Packers will struggle to defend Kittle, so we may as well sweeten the pot. 

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com's community forums and betting tools.

49ers-Packers picks made on 1/20/2022 at 8:55 p.m. ET.