The NFL Draft is a great place to put your money where your mouth is. For months we hear how there’s no way something could happen, but only 32 players can hear their name called on Thursday night. The rumors and smokescreens come to a halt soon.
Player prop bets are an excellent way to win wagers if we use history and logic. Fortunately, I’ve talked to scouts and league executives throughout the year to get a good feel for what could happen. We’re well primed to predict what’ll happen and profit.
First Defensive Player Picked
This draft is obviously heavy on offensive players. We may go as many as 10 picks without hearing a defensive player’s name called. However predicting which name we hear first is fairly easy.
Alabama’s Patrick Surtain is highly likely to be taken first, with the main competitor being Jaycee Horn. Both are big, physical corners who fit the modern demand for versatile defenders.
Surtain is a favorite for corner-needy teams due to his experience in Nick Saban’s system. Atlanta, Carolina, Dallas, the Giants, and Eagles are all looking at the position in the top-12, per sources.
We’ll see at least one, if not two, corners selected by these teams. Surtain offers quality value at this price.
Free picks: Patrick Surtain II (-120), and Surtain picked Under 10.5 (-165) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Third Overall Pick
News about Justin Fields’ epilepsy is certainly an interesting wrinkle into the third overall pick. Fields is easily the best quarterback not named Trevor Lawrence in the class, in my opinion, yet he may not even be the third name at the position taken. His health hasn’t held him back to this point and the latest buzz is that several needy teams aren’t concerned about his condition.
The Mac Jones buzz may be real but it hasn’t come from the team. Some insiders scoff at the idea they traded their future for a more limited passer than Fields and even Trey Lance. Both of the athletic passers are underdogs as oddsmakers are looking to cash in on the media being wrong.
Fields is the smart money, but Lance is the value play at +375. Either one is a solid bet.
Draft Position of Kwity Paye
The hottest edge player in the class is Kwity Paye. The Michigan pass-rusher has a great blend of physical traits and demeanor. It’s well-thought that Miami is his absolute floor, with several other suitors who could take him well before the pick.
The under is a terrific value to be had at sportsbooks. With Detroit, Carolina, Dallas, the Giants, Vikings, Vegas and Arizona needing help, one is bound to beat the prop. Miami could even move up with one of the teams for him to beat the run on edge rushers.
Free pick: Paye Pick Under 17.5 (-140) at BetOnline
Draft Position of Kyle Trask
One of the surprising differences in over/under prop bets this year is Kyle Trask and Jamie Newman. While Trask had a good 2020 season for the Gators and Newman sat the season out, the two don’t compare tools-wise. Trask has almost no chance of becoming a starter in the NFL and Newman does, however small that chance is.
Despite this, there’s almost a 100-pick discrepancy between the two. Trask being picked before the end of the third round would be stunning considering his physical limitations. Newman’s line of 170 isn’t something we’ll touch, but it’s always interesting to see where the league values talent.
Newman is a legitimate talent worth developing, whereas Trask is at-best a good backup. That value offered by betting sites simply isn’t worth the 77th overall pick or better.
Free pick: Trask Pick Over 77.5 (+100) at BetOnline
Total First Round Receivers
There are three first-round receiver locks right now. Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith are locks for the top-14. Chase won’t last beyond sixth, and the Alabama stars won’t be far behind. But can we guarantee two more will be picked?
Sources say Kadarius Toney is likely to go in the first, and Rashod Bateman is the other name to watch. Both could easily slip into the second-round though if there’s a bigger run on defensive linemen and linebackers than expected. Neither tested well enough to lock in their first-round status.
We’re looking at value here, and though the best bet is more than 4.5 go, the return here is worth the risk.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.