The 2017 NFL Draft begins April 27, and some enticing markets where it looks like there’s some profit are in the Props markets at BetOnline for individual QBs and where they might be drafted with Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer and Patrick Mahomes the top four prospects. Let’s looks at the odds for these four.
The NFL Draft will be held from April 27-29 at the Philadelphia Museum of Art at Eakins Oval (ESPN, ESPN2, NFL Network), and as often happens every Spring the QB position is a hot commodity in the league with some aging stars at the position (Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brady, Rivers), a couple guys who might not even start a game (Garappolo, Romo) and a number of guys on whom the jury is still out on in one regad or another (Cutler, Palmer, Bridgewater, Cousins).
One of the best at creating unique props, Offshore sportsbook BetOnline has put up 'Over/Unders' for six NCAAF QBs likely to be drafted into the National Football League in The City Of Brotherly Love later this month: Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina), Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech), DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame), Joshua Dobbs (Tennessee) and Chad Kelly (Ole Miss).
Let’s look at the current numbers and offer up some logic, information and picks for the top four candidates where warranted. The SEC’s Dobbs (Round 1-3 +250; Round 4 +225; Round 5 +250; Round 6 to 7 or Undrafted +400, BetOnline) and potential sleeper Kelly (Round 1-5 +200; Round 6 +200; Round 7 or Undrafted +130, BetOnline) are projected to go much later -- if drafted at all -- than are Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes and Kizer.
Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
Over 11½ Pick +165
Under 11½ Pick -205
The Skinny: Trubisky (6-2, 222) was a -115 favorite over Watson (-105) at BoL two months ago in another Props market, but rumors Trubisky won't last long made the Tar Heels signal-caller a big favorite to be drafted over Watson at Intertops. With one NFL executive reportedly saying the Jets may take a QB in the No 6 spot, Trubisky may end up getting picked way earlier than the 11½ Over/Under (Under -205) posted for him right now. And with Josh McCown, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg now 1-2-3 on the Jets' Depth Chart at Ourlads, Jets GM Mike Maccagnan would be wise to grab Trubisky if he’s there.
Pick: Trubisky Under 11½ -205 (BetOnline)
Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Over 12½ Pick +120
Under 12½ Pick -150
The Skinny: The athletic Watson (6-2, 221), a two-time Davey O’Brien Award winner and the 2017 National Championship QB, will be a great addition to whichever team takes him and with Nos. 10 (Bills), 11 (Saints) and 12 (Browns) all needing an able young QB, Watson could go in the Top 12, triggered by an earlier-than-thought Trubisky pick. The problem? Round 1 is loaded with talent and guys like Foster (ALA), Hooper (OSU), Thomas (STAN), Allen (ALA) and Conley (OSU) could still be on the board from 7-13. Watson should go between 10th-12th.
Pick: Watson Under 11½ -195 (BetOnline)
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Over 25½ Pick +160
Under 25½ Pick -195
The Skinny: Mahomes (6-2, 225) is a gunslinger in true Red Raiders fashion and has reportedly seen his stock rise through the pre-draft process and the Browns (#12), Cardinals (#13), Texans (#25) and Chiefs (#27) have all reportedly been linked to Mahomes -- projected to go anywhere from No. 13 to No. 38 -- but the No. 12 and 13 spots may see Watson still available. Because of the demand for quality QBs and because Brock Osweiler was a bust, the Texans (+2816 to win Super Bowl, BookMaker) may choose Mahomes -- who visited the Texans for two days -- at No. 25, but this one’s just too close to call.
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Over 30½ Pick -105
Under 30½ Pick -125
The Skinny: Kizer (6-4½, 230) has seemed to slip in perception a tad in NFL team’s eyes, as well as oddsmakers where he now sits behind Mahomes after being perceived as the third-best QB in this NFL Draft for so long. With a perceived rush for the top three QBs in the draft, Kizer may slip out of Round 1, simply because there are so many great Offensive skill players expected to be left from No. 15 on, likely including players like Western Michigan WR Corey Davis, Washington WR John Ross, Alabama TE OJ Howard and Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey. The spot Kizer is chosen will be the key to the Number of Quarterbacks Selected in Round 1 Prop (3½u -150, William Hill).
Pick: Kizer Over 30½ -105 (BetOnline)
2017 NFL DRAFT PROPS PICK: Number of QBs Chosen Round 1: Under 3½ -150 (William Hill)