2016 Week 1 Monday Night Football Predictions - Betting Odds Analysis & Free Picks

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 12, 2016 4:34 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 12, 2016 4:34 PM UTC

Are you ready for some Football? You’ll get double your pleasure in Week 1 with Steelers vs. Redskins & Rams vs. 49ers. Let’s handicap these two primetime affairs in list form and try to nail a Week 1 NFL picks

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins
Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3 SU, 50 PS-79 PA in Preseason) head to FedExField in Landover, Maryland on Monday night to face Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (3-1 SU, 80 PF-70 PA in Preseason) in NFL Regular Season Week 1 for the first Monday Night Football doubleheader. Current Week 1 NFL Odds (Friday night) at offshore sportsbooks have the visiting Steelers favored in a 2½- to 3-point range with the Total (Points) in this game now ranging from a low 49½ to a high of 50½  with almost all sportsbooks currently hanging an even 50 for the game.

In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Steelers are priced at -145 with the host Redskins lined at +131 on the takeback. The Pittsburgh Steelers Total Team Points is at 26½ while the Washington Redskins Total Team Points is at 23½. The 1st Half line sees Pittsburgh favored in the 1½- to 2½-point chalks while the First Half Total is 25½u. Heading into Week 1, the Washington Redskins Regular Season Win Total sits at 7½ (Over -130, Under +110, at 5Dimes) while the Pittsburgh Steelers Regular Season Team Win Total is currently at 10½ (Under -130, Over +110, at 5Dimes).


Why Take Pittsburgh Steelers Over Washington Redskins Here?
The Steelers are definitely worth betting minus the 2½ if you can find it or 3 points as well as on the Money Line (-145, at Pinnacle) on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 1 in The American Rome for a bunch of seemingly simple reasons. Here’s are a bunch of them...

1—Although they will be without the services of RB Le’Veon Bell (Suspended) and WR Martavis Bryant (Injured), the Steelers have the much better football team and with Head Coach Mike Tomlin (76-74-5 ATS) able to plug in able substitutes like RB DeAngelo Williams and speedy WR Markus Wheaton, this Pittsburgh Offense (25 ppg in 2015) shouldn’t miss a beat against the Defensively-challenged Redskins (#28 in Total Defense in 2015, 23.7 ppg) and even though Washington 50/1 to win Super Bowl and QB Cousins (6-7 ATS at Home) had a nice season in 2015, let’s not get too drunk on one 9-8 in the paltry NFC East... especially after back-to-back 5-11 SU Regular Seasons. C’mon man.

2—The starting QBs. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger (24-30 ATS as Road favorite, His Worst Role) has been to and won Super Bowls while the Redskins Kirk Cousins (6-2 ATS as Home Underdog, His Best Role) is still feeling his oats in the NFL, glad he won the position last season and that Robert Griffin III has left town so this team can have its preferred Quarterback under Center. Pittsburgh has L4 of the L5 Week 1 games SU, but the bottom line here is the Steelers will be scrapping with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals in the best Division in the NFL (AFC North) while Washington will be trying to repeat in probably the worst division in the league (NFC East), and one which will have Cousins, Eli Manning (New York Giants) and two Rookies starting for their teams in the Dallas Cowboys (Dak Prescott) and the Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz). This is not the CFL.

3—Some key Trends favor the Steelers in this particular scheduling spot. Pittsburgh has been good lately ATS on Grass (3-1-1 ATS L5), good on the Road (7-3-2 ATS) and good in the month of September (4-1 ATS L5), and the Steelers are 3-1 ATS the L4 in this series, beating Washington 27-12 as 5½-point favorites at Heinz Field in The Steel City in 2012. And the Black and Gold will definitely have the best player on the field here in NFL Regular Season Week 1 in WR Antonio Brown (136 receptions, 1,834 yards, 10 TDs in 2015). The Monday Night Football Trends see Pittsburgh to be 12-14 ATS on the Road and 11-12 ATS as a Favorite while Washington is 7-9 ATS at Home and 8-7 ATS as an Underdog on Monday Night Football, so not much separation from .500 for either at the betting window on MNF through the years. But with Pittsburgh 10-4 ATS in the L14 Steelers Week 1 games and WRs DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garçon and Washington just 1-4 ATS their L5 Monday games, let’s take the better team and simply lay the -2½ at 5Dimes (-125) before the crowd pushes to 3 and possibly past that Key Betting Number when all the dust clears from Sunday’s action. Turn out the lights, the party’s over... 


Free NLF Pick: Steelers -2½ -125 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Todd Gurley and the now Los Angeles Rams (2-2 SU, 83 PS-88 PA in Preseason) head up the Pacific Coast to The City By The City By The Bay—Santa Clara—and Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers (2-2 SU, 85 PS-90 PA in Preseason) in NFL Regular Season Week 1 and a big early NFC West meeting for both sides. Current Odds (Friday night) at Offshore sportsbooks have the visiting Rams favored in a 1- to 2½-point range with the Total (Points) in this game ranging from 42½ almost everywhere up to 43 with even a 43½ in the Offshore marketplace.

In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Rams priced at -130 with the host Niners lined at +118 on the takeback (Pinnacle). The San Francisco 49ers Total Team Points is at 20 while the Los Angeles Rams Total Team Points is at 21. The 1st Half line sees Los Angeles favored by ½ point while the First Half Total is 21½. Heading into Week 1, the San Francisco 49ers Regular Season Win Total sits at a 5½ (Over +130, Under -150, st 5Dimes) while the Los Angeles Rams Regular Season Team Win Total is currently at 7½ (Under -200, Over +170, at 5Dimes).


Why Take the Under Here In Palo Alto Under Primetime Lights? 
The Under seems worth taking a shot on with the Total at 43½ at The Greek or 43 and here are some of of them...

1—The recent and relevant Totals Trends. The Under is 4-1 the L5 in this NFC West series and the Under is 4-1 the L5 meetings in San Francisco or Santa Clara, including a 19-16 SF scoreline (39½) in Week 17 last season. The Under is 4-0 in the L4 Rams games against the NFC West, 4-1 the L5 against NFC foes, the Under is 6-1 in the L7 Rams games overall, the Under is 38-17-1 the L56 Rams Road games (69.1%) and the Under is 35-17 the L52 Los Angeles games on Grass. Also, the Under is 6-1 the L7 San Francisco games on Grass (Levi’s Stadium), the Under is 8-2 the l10 Niners games against the NFC West, the Under is 12-5 the L17 San Francisco games against the NFC, the Under is 7-3 in the L10 49ers games overall and the Under is an impressive 18-5 in the L23 San Francisco Home games (71.3%)—the one Trend too powerful to overlook here.

2—The Rams will probably be running the football a lot here on the Road in Week 1 with RB Todd Gurley (Total Rushing Yards 86½, SkyBet) probably getting the bulk of the carries for the visitors. And this will logically consume clock, and probably do so early on (1st Half) dictating a slower pace at least from the Rams side. And with San Francisco (5-0 ATS L5 Week 1 games) going QB with 26-year-old Missouri-product, the big 6-4, 235-pound Blaine Gabbert (2,031 passing yards, 10 TDs, 86.2 QBR in 2015) over Colin Kaepernick, the host Niners (24-6 ATS L30 Monday games) could be a bit tentative on Offense.

3—The (Totals) number. 43 (or 43½). It can land on 42 and we still win. A deep dive on the Final Scores of the L10 games played in this series in either Santa Clara or San Francisco (SF 19-16 STL, SF 10-STL 13, SF, SF 23-13 STL, SF 24-24 OT, SF 26-0 STL, SF 23-20 STL, SF 35-0 STL, SF 35-16 STL, SF 6-13 STL, SF 20-13 STL) reveals not only the return of the “St. Louis” monniker—and a tie (24-24 in 2012 when Jim Harbaugh still roamed the Niners sidelines as Head Coach and the franchise seemed to have perennial hopes of making the NFL Postseason—but only 3 games where over 42 points were scored and an average of just 31.33 ppg the L3 in the Bay Area where they have a really crooked street (Lombard), still use Cable Cars for transportation and have an empty prison (Alcatraz) on an island off the wharf on the San Francisco coast. So the Under is 3-1 the L4 here and has seen a total average number of more than 12 points less scored (31.333 ppg) in the L3 played in this area (San Francisco or Palo Alto) than the current number (43½) hanging at Jamaican-based Offshore sportsbook The Greek. Take the under for your nfl monday night picks


Free NFL Picks: Under 43 -110
Best Line Offered: at The Greek
NFL Picks Season Records: 12-5-0

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