Making winning NFL picks this time of year is not simple, with a number of matchups involving bad teams and those for playoff positioning. Sportsbooks by now can anticipate sports bettor’s moves.
This can lead to a conundrum when analyzing NFL odds, because for the most part the lines are dead on and emotion plays an even greater role, trying to determine what teams will “show up” or already have –checked out – and are waiting for the season to end.
We at Sportsbook Review are doing our best to make this experience somewhat easier with our score-based NFL Power Rankings. We try to accurately assess each game and give you our thoughts for NFL picks each week.
Make sure to check our numbers vs. the odds makers line on Friday mornings and any favorite we have larger by three or four points is 17-7 ATS this season. With our NFL power rankings, we have a new No. 1 and New England is back on top. Seattle is in second place with Denver third, followed by Indianapolis and Green Bay.
|Power Ratings||Start||Current||Power Ratings||Start||Current|
|NFC East||AFC East|
|NFC North||AFC North|
|NFC South||AFC South|
|NFC West||AFC West|
|San Francisco||98||92||Kansas City||95||98|
|St. Louis||93||94||San Diego||96||95|
Thursday – Jacksonville - 7 over Tennessee
Our significantly higher number is a reflection of just how bad the Titans have been losing their last seven games by an average of 15.4 points a contest.
Saturday - Philadelphia -13 over Washington
Outside possibly of Chicago, is there a more dysfunctional team than the Redskins right now? Yes, the betting odds have the Redskins at +8, but since the bye week Washington has lost by 16.8 points per game and how do they stop the Eagles?
Saturday – San Francisco - 1 over San Diego
Our numbers lineup with the odds makers for this Left Coast matchup, which has seen both squads falter down the stretch.
Miami – 4 over Minnesota
We have Minnesota as a shorter underdog and why not, they are on a 7-1 ATS role and 10-2 ATS playing in December the past few years.
Green Bay -11 over Tampa Bay
In the battle of Bay’s, the Packers opened and stayed as 10.5-point favorites and it will be worth noting if their offense plays better on the road.
Detroit -9 over Chicago
When Jay Cutler was still starting we had the Lions at -9 and now that he’s been benched, the number has risen to this level.
New England -15 over N.Y. Jets
No question our figure is dramatically higher than the line, but keep this mind the average margin of a New England victory is 18.8 points this season.
Pittsburgh -1 over Kansas City
Our numbers comes in a couple points lower on Pittsburgh, but understand, despite a 9-5 record the Steelers have only been winning by 3.6 points a contest.
Cleveland -2 over Carolina
Still no line on this matchup (as of Thursday morning) with Cam Newton’s status still unknown. Cleveland is the better team, but Johnny Football is not the better quarterback in this non-conference clash no matter what.
Baltimore -3 over Houston
We have the Ravens as a shorter favorite because our NFL power rankings cannot take into effect Houston playing a practice squad quarterback from another team this week.
St. Louis -5 over N.Y. Giants
Our numbers align with what the sportsbooks have sent out on this NFC conflict.
Buffalo -9 over Oakland
Did you know the Raiders average loss has been by 15.2 points a game this season? Now you do and this explains why we have them as larger underdogs.
Indianapolis -1 over Dallas
This is one of our upset picks as we have had the Colts rated higher than Dallas all year. Let’s see who is correct!
SNF – Seattle – 4 over Arizona
Once again, we arrive at this spread based on ‘normal’ quarterback for Arizona, not a third-stringer, which is the reason for difference.
MNF – Denver – 4 over Cincinnati
We’re a digit off with the Broncos at -3. We have a question for you, which Cincinnati team shows up?