Week 15 NFL Picks: Take Over in Falcons vs. Steelers

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, December 9, 2014 4:34 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2014 4:34 PM UTC

With not much apparent edge in picking a side in this game, we feel there's good NFL betting value on the OVER. Will Big Ben and Matty Ice provide the fireworks this weekend to help us out?

Odds Overview
Out on the road in Week 15, the Steelers are favored in the 1.5 to 3-point range right now, but the NFL odds will surely stabilize later on as we approach Sunday. Though Pittsburgh (8-5 SU) has the superior record in this matchup, both the Steelers and Falcons are at 6-7 against the spread this season.

We should be seeing a lot of points on Sunday, and NFL odds makers agree. They've set the total at 54 points in the early stages of the week, one of the top three highest numbers on the board for the week.


Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been playing better as of late, and they're still firmly in the playoff discussion. Well, they have the putrid NFC South to thank for that.

Yes, despite a 5-8 record, Atlanta is in first place in the division. Truth be told though, the Falcons have seemingly turned a corner of late, as they've figured things out since their bye in Week 9. They're 3-2 over their last five games, with wins over Carolina, Tampa Bay and Arizona and losses to Green Bay and Cleveland.

Monday night's 43-37 loss to the Packers was about as entertaining of a game as you'll see this season. The Falcons had no way of stopping Aaron Rodgers from doing whatever he wanted, but they at least showed up and executed offensively. Matt Ryan had 375 passing yards with four touchdowns and one pick, with Julio Jones exploding for 11 catches for 259 yards and a score. Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Harry Douglas and Eric Weems all reached the end zone as well.

That kind of efficiency will be needed once more against another team that can put up points in a hurry in Pittsburgh, but will Jones be available? He hurt his hip late in the loss to Green Bay and his status is up in the air. That's something you'll definitely want to track throughout the week.


Pittsburgh Steelers
It's crazy in the AFC North right now.

All four teams in the division have winning records, so it's all up for grabs. The Steelers really can't afford many more slipups, and they're coming off one of their best wins of the season. They went into Cincinnati and beat their division rivals 42-21 on the road, putting them within striking distance of taking over the lead in the North.

Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant all had solid games in the win, but the day belonged to Le'Veon Bell, who had 26 carries for 185 yards and two scores while also adding six catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Bell has been an absolute monster lately, with no competition for carries, and that's opened the field up for Roethlisberger to operate.

Ranked in the top ten in both passing (#2, 303.2 YPG) and rushing (#8, 123.8 YPG), this is as balanced of an offense as there is in the NFL. It'd be a surprise if they didn't keep it up against a porous Falcons defense.


NFL Pick
It's been a while since we've recommended a total, but we feel good about this spot.

The Falcons and Steelers are ranked #21 and #24 respectively in points allowed per game, with neither defense stepping up much at all this season. It's been all about the offensive production, with Ryan and Jones linking up with incredible precision and Big Ben and Brown (and Bell of course) doing the same. We should see a lot of passing attempts in this situation, which tends to favor the OVER.

As we get set to add all of our NFL picks to our weekend tickets, you should strongly be considering the OVER. We don't expect much defense whatsoever, and fully believe we'll see the final number end up way north of 54. Good luck!

Free NFL Pick: OVER 54

comment here