Hard to believe that there are only 3 weeks left in the regular season, with that in mind we have to take advantage of all the value being presented to us in the NFL Prop Odds.
Race To 10 Points
The St. Louis Rams easily have the worst offense in the NFL, and while it showed up last week thanks to the big running of Todd Gurley, outside of their phenom rookie running back, the Rams have absolutely nothing on offense. While the Bucs haven’t been great in two of their last three weeks either, even tonight against a tough Rams defense, I think they are being undervalued in the race to the points. Even though their win last week broke a five-game losing streak, the Rams have actually been pretty good at winning the race to 10 points when you don’t expect them to. It’s not been their early game scoring that’s been the problem this season, and it shows, as they are 3-3 in their last six games in the race to 10 points. However, tonight against the Bucs, who need a win to keep their bleak playoff hopes alive, I see Tampa’s offense bouncing back. The short week should help the offenses in this one, and even though they have lost the race to 10 points in their last two games, the Bucs won it in their three games before that.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110)
Doug Martin O/U 88.5 rushing yards
Even though the Bucs might win this game, that doesn’t mean they aren’t immune from falling behind at times in the game. This trend has had an effect on the rushing attempts from Doug Martin, who at times has looked like that rookie running back that took the league by storm a few years ago, and at other times he has looked like a complete bust. After his 235-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 11, Martin has averaged 6.8 yards per carry, but because the Bucs were behind last week, Martin only received 11 carries. This week against a Rams defense at home and on a short week, Martin might have some success, but this is by far the toughest test Martin has faced all season. The Rams are a top five rushing defense this season, and in TNF anything can happen. The Rams could control the clock with Gurley, and that could spell bad news for Martin and his rushing attempts. In their last two losses, Martin has rushed the ball a total of seven times in the second halves, and I see a similar outcome tonight.
NFL Pick: UNDER 88.5 (-110)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins O/U 41.5 receiving yards
Last week everyone in the DFS community was all over Austin Seferian-Jenkins in hopes that he could win them a million dollars. I was one of those squares, and he ended up putting up a dud. The Bucs and the NFL community as a whole have been waiting for this guy to break out, and while it may still happen in one of these games/years, I doubt it’s tonight. He only played 25 snaps last week on offense, and if that happens again here on a short week, there is almost no way he can get over his yards total of 41.5. The former second round pick had one big game this season against the Titans, but since then has been injured and played only three games, and in those three games he was targeted 16 times and caught eight of those targets for only 91 yards. In fact outside of his one big game this season, he has never had more than 58 yards in a game in his young career. Even though the Rams are giving up the 8th most yards to opposing tight ends this season, lay an NFL Pick on this one going under on the short week.
NFL Pick: UNDER 41.5 (-115)