'Under' is Sharp NFL Pick for Bengal vs. Chiefs Aug. 7th

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, August 5, 2014 2:48 PM GMT

Two teams that made the playoffs in the AFC last season get to hook up in Week 1 of the preseason. The Bengals and Chiefs are both looking to not regress in 2014, and the NFL Odds for this game favor the home team at -2, with a total of 35 ½. 

Regression Express
Both of these teams might not be as good as they were a year ago, and even though the AFC does not project to be that tough this season, they are both still going to be on the fringe of playoff contention. The Chiefs have virtually no chance at gaining a divisional crown with the Broncos in the same division, while the Bengals could repeat as division champs, but the Ravens and Steelers are both going to be much better than their down, 2013 years.

With that in mind, this game might not be the prolific matchup some are projecting this preseason. With the starters likely only playing a few series right at the beginning of the game, this one could be a little be lower scoring, and with a total of 35 ½, while it isn’t high, this total could have some rare preseason value this Thursday.

 

Andy Dalton’s New Contract
Yesterday news broke that Andy Dalton had received a huge new contract from the Bengals and owner/GM, Mike Brown. First report of the deal had the total number around $115 million, however a correction came out later, and according to Pro Football Talk, the extension is worth six years, $96 million, with a $12 million signing bonus.

When I first heard about this deal I was pretty shocked, as was the rest of the football world. I wasn’t sure if Brown was living in another universe where Dalton is a franchise quarterback. However more news of the deal put things into a little more perspective.

Apparently the contract only has $17 million in guaranteed money. The signing bonus took over $12 million of that deal, and Dalton’s roster bonus which he should also receive this season. This makes the deal better because Dalton will have all of his guaranteed money paid out to him after this season, and if he starts to regress like I think he is going to, the Bengals could easily dump him if the relationship goes south.

All in all, this is still a questionable deal for a guy that at times looks like he doesn’t even belong in the league. This year will be very telling, because without his old offensive coordinator, Dalton might be in for a tough season under Hue Jackson’s deep passing game. Dalton is exactly the greatest deep ball thrower.

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The Sharp Pick
While Dalton’s contract likely won’t help him in this game, the Bengals and Chiefs don’t have a whole lot of offense in their first string, let alone their third and fourth string. While I normally don’t like betting totals in the preseason, the 'under' looks like it could have some nice value between these teams. At 35 ½, both teams could fall around 15 to 17 points by the end of the game, which would be a low enough score for us to cash.

My Free Pick: Bet under 35 ½ pts at Pinnacle sportsbook