"Over" to Offer Betting Value for Thursday's Chargers vs. Broncos

Jeff Grant

Thursday, October 23, 2014 1:49 PM GMT

Denver and San Diego fell UNDER the betting total in all three meetings a season ago, which has caused NFL oddsmakers to make an adjustment in 2014.

Disappointing Result
San Diego had its five-game win streak snapped Sunday, as it dropped a 23-20 decision to the Kansas City Chiefs as three-point home favorites, while losing the time-of-possession battle by 18 minutes.

The Chargers still rank fifth in the league in terms of controlling the football offensively, which is important to consider when making your Thursday Night Football picks, as they want to keep the ball away from Broncos signal-caller Peyton Manning.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 5-4 SU and 7-1-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, with the OVER going 5-4 in that situation.

 

Rolling Along
Denver has gone 3-0 SUATS in its three games since its bye week, as it has out-gained the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers by a combined 597 yards in that span.

The Broncos lead the league in averaging 31.5 points per game, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting lines, while they also pace all teams in scoring a touchdown in the red zone 79 percent of the time.

NFL handicappers will find that the squad is 23-3 SU and 19-6-1 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in its last 26 opportunities, with the OVER going 16-10.

 

Dynamic Duo
The Chargers are certainly capable of pulling off the upset, as they earned a 27-20 road victory over the Broncos in a Thursday night matchup during the 2013 campaign, but quarterback Philip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates will need to be dynamic.

Rivers has compiled a 10-7 SU record in this rivalry, but he’s thrown just seven touchdowns with four interceptions in the last four meetings.

Gates is someone that sports bettors should target in props, as he leads all NFL players with 71 catches and 906 receiving yards against the Broncos since he entered the league.

 

Getting After the Quarterback
The Broncos are truly dynamic at the outside linebacker position, as Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware have combined for 15 sacks, but the stop unit will need to create pressure up the middle to limit Rivers in the passing game.

Denver has a lot of big names and depth defensively, but it also ranks just 18th in the league in surrendering 242.5 passing yards per game.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their top NFL picks to open a new week, as the OVER is 9-1 in the Broncos’ last 10 October contests.

Oddsmakers have made an adjustment on the number being offered after all three meetings going UNDER the total in this series a year ago.

NFL Pick: Over 51 at Pinnacle Sports 

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