Wisconsin & UNC Greensboro Are Chalky Value at Home

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, December 13, 2017 1:45 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017 1:45 PM UTC

Lay the points with a pair of 7-point home favorites Wednesday when a porous UNC Wilmington squad travels across the Tar Heel state to take on UNC Greensboro, and ailing Wisconsin hosts Western Kentucky.

UNC Wilmington at UNC Greensboro (-7)

Fact: UNC Wilmington (2-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) yields 92 points per game, 349th out of 351 Division I teams. To say its been a rough start under first-year head coach C.B. McGrath is an understatement. McGrath, a former assistant at UNC, has his group running a similar transition offense to the Tar Heels. Problem is ,the Seahawks do not possess similar talent levels, nor are they as deep. Ranking 10th in tempo nationally, they get tired and sloppy when asked to defend.

UNC Greensboro’s (6-3 SU, 3-0 ATS) shot-stopping abilities are on the other end of the spectrum. The defense ranks 95th in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom, allowing a 40.4 opponent field-goal percentage. The Spartans do a great job flooding the paint, led by 6-foot-10 sophomore James Dickey. The big man swats 2.2 per game and offers production offensively averaging 8.9 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.

UNC Wilmington is winless in five road games this season and enters Greensboro after bad weather in Baton Rouge forced alternative travel routes before and after its game at LSU on Sunday. McGrath believes his team is a “little weary” following the whirlwind trip; tough break for an already porous defense. Greensboro is 3-0 SU and ATS hosting CAA foes as home chalk of 5 points or more under head coach Wes Miller. Expect the perfect record to stay intact. Lay the points behind the Spartans, but monitor the number at the SBR college basketball odds page. The line opened -9.5 in favor of Greensboro, bet down to -6.5 at some shops by morning. Shop around these best online sportsbooks for the best value while betting against the line movement.

Free NCAAB Pick: UNC Greensboro -7Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-7.5)

Western Kentucky (6-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) head coach Rick Stansbury fields an experienced and productive squad. Six of seven scholarship players average double figures in scoring, led by senior guard Darius Thompson (13.8 ppg). Offensively, the Hilltoppers are deadly from the 3-point area, sinking 40.1 percent on the year. On defense, meanwhile, they are aggressive and press, forcing 16.6 turnovers per game. One issue is that the intensity leads to foul trouble, ranking 10th nationally.

Wisconsin’s (4-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) season just got uglier with the loss of sophomore guard D’Mitrik Trice and freshman wing Kobe King. Trice, who led the Badgers with 31.5 minutes per game (9.5 ppg, 2.3 apg), is out for at least a month with a hurt foot, while King (5.2 ppg) underwent knee surgery Monday and will miss the rest of the season.

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Successful surgery! Thank you for all the prayers! In God’s timing!🙏🏽

— D'Mitrik Trice (@DMitrikTrice0) December 11, 2017
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Head coach Greg Gard rolled out a new starting five in the team’s last game vs. Marquette because of the injuries. They were thoroughly manhandled 82-63 despite tipping off 5-point chalk. Defensive communication was the issue, allowing 82 points or more at Kohl Center for just the fourth time in the last decade. It happened more than a week ago in a 83-58 defeat to Ohio State as well.

Stansbury runs a seven-man rotation, which away from home and undermatched on paper makes it difficult to stay fresh and execute. Maybe this is why the Hilltoppers have not won a true road game against a Power 5 foe since beating Ole Miss 81-74 in December 2014. Moreover, Western Kentucky has never beaten a Big Ten team on the road. Wisconsin is rebuilding, but don’t let some of the blowout losses fool you. This team is still talented. It has played the fifth-toughest schedule in the nation per KenPom and will find the Hilltoppers a building-block opponent to get back to winning. Lay the points with the Badgers.

Free NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin -7Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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