Winning Capper Says: Wyoming Should be Wary of Northern Colorado on Tuesday

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, December 19, 2017 2:04 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017 2:04 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop, spots a road game in Wyoming against an opponent within driving distance. Read on as he breaks down a game in which the Wyoming home court advantage may fall short.

Northern Colorado Bears vs Wyoming Cowboys

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Free NCAAB Pick: Northern Colorado +8Best Line Offered: at Heritage

On Tuesday night, the Wyoming Cowboys welcome again a Big Sky team to the Arena Auditorium in Laramie. This is the closest school to them though, as the Northern Colorado Bears have a short hour and 45-minute drive to get there from Greeley, Colorado. That distance serves to reduce the Cowboy’s very good home court advantage, in part because Greeley sits at 4,658 ft. in elevation, which is not such a drastic departure to Laramie’s 7,165 ft. as most teams visiting to play. The Cowboys have opened up as 8-point favorites across the board, while the total is sitting at 144 at early moving books such as BookMaker.

The Northern Colorado Bears come into this game 8-3 SU and a very profitable 5-2 ATS, including a 4-1 ATS mark on the road. They play defense quite well on the road, limiting opponents to just 66 points per game on 38.9% shooting from the field. Their effective defensive field goal percentage of 44.6% is ranked 25th in the country. They use an 8-man rotation and man defense that really cuts down on 3pt attempts for opposing offenses. In fact, the Bears defense forces opposing offenses into avoided 3pt attempts at the highest rate in the country.

Wyoming comes into this game with one of the higher 3pt attempt rates in the country, and score 34.4% of their points from behind the arc. This is even with a subpar 3pt conversion rate of 33.0%. They do shoot better at home though from three, and hit at 38% with 6’ 8” senior swingman, Hayden Dalton, leading the way with a 38.6% 3pt percentage overall.

The Cowboys are 9-3 on the year SU and a perfect 6-0 SU at home. Their ATS trends have been disappointing though, with the Cowboys just 1-3 ATS at home and failing to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 lined games. They share a common opponent in Denver with Northern Colorado this year, and although Denver hit 3’s from the parking lot at home against the Cowboys, their 78-88 loss to them as a 6-point favorite was a bit of a shock. Northern Colorado on the other hand obliterated Denver on their home court last week, 83-63, covering as a 6-point favorite.

Northern Colorado’s proximity to Laramie and their style of play lead me to believe that they can be competitive in this game. The final nail in the coffin for my pick is Wyoming’s next opponent, where they host their main Mountain West Conference title competition in San Diego State. Losing any type of focus in a look ahead game could lead the Cowboy’s into a tighter game than normal at home. For that reason, I will take Northern Colorado and the points as my Tuesday NCAAB pick.

2017-18 NCAAB Record: 16-8 , +7.50 Units (1 Pending)

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