Wichita State to Beat Kansas is the NCAA Basketball Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, March 22, 2015 4:06 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 22, 2015 4:06 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Sunday.


An in-state rivalry that the team from the major conference has wanted no part of during the regular season now takes place in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Sunday when those seventh seeded Wichita State Shockers (29-4, 14-4 away/neutral) take on the second seeded Kansas Jayhawks (27-8, 12-8 away/neutral) at the CenturyLink Center in Omaha, NE at 5:15 ET in a game televised nationally on CBS.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports now has Wichita State as a tiny favorite for this contest with the current line at -1 with odds of -102.

Wichita State Gets Its Wish!
Wichita State of the Missouri Valley Conference has been trying to get Kansas in its schedule for years, but the Big 12 Conference school would have none of it to this point after seeing just how great the Shockers are while never backing down even vs. the best of competition. Granted Wichita State was not at its best Friday, probably with this matchup in back if its mind, but the Shockers still found a way to prevail as usual 81-76 over Indiana.

Kansas had a much easier time being the winning NCAA Basketball pick 75-56 over New Mexico State in the Round of 64, but the Jayhawks should face a more formidable challenge here! The Jayhawks opened as small favorites for this contest, but apparently there has been a lot of sharp money on the seven-seeds from Wichita State to now make them one-point favorites despite the betting action being split evenly it terms of number of bets according to SBR Odds.

Shockers Have No Weaknesses
And despite the seedings of these teams and Kansas being ranked higher on the polls, we agree with the sharp move here and would even go as far as saying that Wichita State is the better team despite the conference affiliations of these teams.

No, the Shockers did not go undefeated during the regular season like they did last year, but their easy season ending 74-60 win over a 31-3 Northern Iowa team that had not lost since New Year’s Day, has not lost since and is today favored over Louisville was as impressive a performance as any team in the country all year and we are looking for a similar effort in this contest.

After all, Wichita State is a team with no weaknesses to be found! The Shockers are simultaneously ranked 20th in the country in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency, making them one of just six teams currently ranked in the top 20 in both categories, and they are strong in every component that makes up those efficiency numbers.

This is especially true regarding turnovers on both ends, as the Shockers are amazingly ranked sixth in the country in offensive turnover percentage at just 15.1 percent vs. a national average of 19.1 percent and 36th in defensive turnover percentage at 21.5 percent.

Lack of Inside Game Could Prove Fatal for Jayhawks
We felt coming into this tournament that Kansas was the weakest of the two-seeds and they certainly seemed vulnerable while losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, the same Cyclones’ team that was just upset by the 14th seeded UAB Blazers in its first NCAA Tournament game this year!

Now Kansas is a good enough three-point shooting team at 38.3 percent, which is 32nd best in the nation, but we feel that it will have to rely heavily on that shooting beyond the arc in this contest, perhaps too much so.

That is because for whatever reason, the Jayhawks have struggled closer to the basket ranking a dismal 226th in the land in two-point shooting at just 46.6 percent, and that does not figure to change here vs. an excellent Wichita State interior defense ranked 12th nationally in two-point defense at 42.2 percent!

ATS Covering Machines
Finally, Wichita State has been one of the best ATS teams in the country in recent years and that has been especially true when coming off of a straight up win, as the Shockers are 44-18-2 ATS in their last 64 games in this circumstance.

Look for that pattern to continue today in their biggest game of the year so far as the lower seeds from Wichita State defeat higher seeded Kansas in the Midwest Region on Sunday.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Wichita State -1 (-102)

comment here