Which Teams Should You Put into your Saturday Parlay?

Rainman M.

Saturday, February 17, 2018 2:20 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 17, 2018 2:20 PM UTC

Our capper scans Saturday’s huge card for a profitable ML Parlay. Michigan State, Kansas State and Boston College look promising, and budling them on a parlay can bring big winnings.
 

Free NCAAB Pick: Parlay Michigan State ML, Kansas State ML, Boston College ML
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

Kansas State (18-8 SU, 10-13 ATS) hosts Iowa State (13-12 SU, 9-13-1 ATS) today at 1 ET.

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Iowa State has been an atrocious road team, going 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in conference road games. Even though Iowa State is stronger at home, they struggled vs Kansas State on December 29, losing 91-75.

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The teams which K-State has lost to in conference play have been strong at scoring inside the arc. Those teams—like Texas Tech and Kansas—matched up well against K-State, which ranks 10th in the Big 12 in opposing two-point shooting percentage. K-State matches up well against Iowa State because the Cyclones are not equipped to exploit this weakness in the Wildcats’ defense, ranking 10th in two-point shooting percentage. The strength of ISU’s offense is its three-point shooting. But it struggled against K-State’s perimeter defense, shooting 4-for-15 from three, and I expect similar struggles on the road.

The Cyclones’ defense struggles in the interior, where K-State’s offense excels. K-State ranks second in the Big 12 in two-point shooting percentage. Guard Cartier Diarra and center Dean Wade rank in the top 400 in two-point shooting percentage. The Wildcats are also strong from behind the arc. They were able to attempt 26 threes against Iowa State in the first match-up. Even if they don’t convert half of their threes again, they rank second in the Big 12 with 37.7% completion from three and should drain plenty threes today. Diarra, Wade and guard Kamau Stokes rank in the top 300 in three-point shooting percentage. Stokes is healthy again. He played 25 minutes in K-State’s last game and went 3-for-4 from three.

Michigan State (25-3 SU, 14-12-2 ATS) plays at Northwestern (15-12 SU, 11-14 ATS) today at 2 ET.

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The Spartans were in an ATS rut after the scandal hit the program. But after ESPN’s Joe Lunardi predicted them to be a three seed, the Spartans became angry. They smashed Minnesota by 30 points and are ready, again on the road, to win their ninth straight game against Northwestern. MSU is 10-1 SU and ATS in its last 11 against the Wildcats.

NW is 2-8 SU against teams ranked in KenPom’s top 50. Michigan State ranks sixth. In those two wins, NW still failed to score more than 70 points. The Wildcats will need to find more offense against the Spartans, who have eclipsed 70 points in 10 of their 15 conference games.

Sparty’s offense is elite and it is deep. Its half-court offense is top-ranked and it ranks in the top 11 nationally in two-point and three-point shooting percentage. Conversely, Northwestern’s two-point defense ranks 10th in the conference and its half-court defense ranks 13th. The two top-50 teams which it beat were Penn State, which has one of the worst half-court offenses in the Big 10, ranking 12th in the category, and Michigan, which shot an absurd 5-for-22 from three, clearly influenced by some dire travel problems.

Michigan State ranks 5th nationally in offensive rebounding and should dominate the interior. The Spartans’ offense is led by point guard Cassius Winston, who ranks third in assist rate. Big men Nick Ward, Jaren Jackson and forward Miles Bridges rank in the top 500 in two-point shooting percentage. Ward and Jackson also rank in the top 350 in offensive rebounding percentage.

Northwestern needs Michigan State to lay an egg offensively in order to have a prayer. The Wildcats rank 10th in the conference in three-point shooting and twelfth in two-point shooting. The Spartans are playing angry and should keep proving that they are not just a three-seed.

Boston College (16-10 SU, 14-10 ATS) hosts Notre Dame (15-11 SU, 9-14 ATS) today at 4 ET to round out our parlay.

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Notre Dame won the first match-up between these two teams, 96-85 on February 6th. But the key detail is that that game was at Notre Dame. In a match-up between two teams which love to attempt threes, the team typically has the advantage which gets to play in its own home court, where it has the momentum of the crowd behind it and where it is used to shooting the ball.

BC’s three-point shooting is about three percent higher at home than its overall number. When the teams first met, BC was able to attempt 30 threes. The Eagles are licking their chops to face Notre Dame, which ranks second-to-last in the ACC in opposing three-point shooting percentage. BC attempts the second-most threes per field goal attempts in the ACC and ranks 5th in the ACC with a solid 38.5 three-point percentage. Guard Jerome Robinson and forward Jordan Chatman rank in the top 200 in three-point shooting percentage.

In the first match-up, Notre Dame’s three-point shooting performance was an anomaly, completing 55.2% from three, although it ranks 9th in the ACC with 35.3 three-point shooting percentage. On the road, its three-point shooting percentage dips from its overall average. The Irish, which relies more than every other ACC team but one on three-point scoring for its point production, will get outshot by BC. ND has lost five straight SU on the road and BC will make it six.

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