Well-Coached New Mexico State Our NCAA Basketball Pick vs. St. Mary's

Charles Stark

Tuesday, March 15, 2016 12:13 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 15, 2016 12:13 PM UTC

Two teams probably feeling a bit snubbed meet tonight when New Mexico State visits St. Mary’s. Let's do the research to come up with the best NCAA basketball pick for tonight's game.

NCAA basketball odds experts have St. Mary’s a solid -12 favorite and the total set at 131. For one of my selections I am going to back the New Mexico State Aggies to keep this game a bit more interesting and hang with the Gaels until the end.


New Mexico State Aggies
The Aggies allow just 63.6 points per game which ranks 16th in the country and allow opponents to shoot just 41.8% on their two point shots which ranks ninth. Defensively they rank as one of the top teams in the country ranking fifth in opponent shooting efficiency and seventh in opponent effective field goal percentage. Of course they come out of a pretty weak WAC conference and the Gaels are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the country. When looking at common opponents though New Mexico State seems to match up very well with St. Mary’s.  Except for a blowout by the Gaels against Bakersfield way back in November there has not been a big disparity with NMSU losing to Irvine by two on the road with SMC beating them by 10 at home, NMSU beating Utah Valley by 24 and 12 with SMC beating them by 15 at home, and NMSU beating Grand Canyon by 20 and then losing by 4 with SMC beating them by 9 at home. This is a well-coached team that could give the Gaels some trouble tonight.


St. Mary’s Gaels
The Gaels rank first in the country in both overall shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, as well as ranking third in shooting efficiency. What a shock to the Gael faithful that they did not make the big dance in what was a tremendous year for them that was supposed to be a rebuilding year. I am a big fan of Randy Bennett and have mentioned before that he is destined for a bigger conference in the future. However, this is a tough spot for them to be laying double digits when we have the classic let down game with a Gaels team that might not be completely focused on their opponent tonight and more focused on why they are not dancing. Offensively they have been excellent but defensively they have been less than perfect ranking just outside the top 50 teams in the country in opponent overall shooting percentage and field goals made per game. They rebound the ball extremely well but so does NMSU which makes this game likely to come down to who gets the most second chances. Check our NCAA basketball pick below.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: New Mexico State +12
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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