Virginia vs. North Carolina NCAA Basketball Pick Inspired by ATS Betting Trends

Jeff Grant

Monday, February 2, 2015 12:13 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 2, 2015 12:13 PM GMT

Virginia has an unblemished record away from home this season, which makes it a top college basketball pick against North Carolina Monday night.

Disappointing Result
Virginia was unable to hold onto an eight-point lead with five minutes to go in a disappointing 69-63 defeat to the Duke Blue Devils as 5.5-point home favorites last Saturday, which is important to consider when looking over the NCAA Basketball odds, as it looks to hold onto the top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.

The Cavaliers allowed an opponent to shoot 50 percent or better from the field for the first time in 44 contests last time out, but they still lead the nation in scoring defense at 50.2 points per game.

It’s important to point out that the team has won all nine of its games when playing away from Charlottesville in 2014-15, while also capturing 11 of its last 13 conference road games dating back to last year.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS in the month of February.

 

A Forgettable Loss
North Carolina gave up an 18-point lead in the second half in suffering a 78-68 overtime defeat to the Louisville Cardinals as five-point road underdogs last Saturday, which can’t be ignored when making your college basketball picks, but it has still won six of its last seven games.

The Tar Heels have averaged 78.8 points on 50.2 percent shooting from the field in their last five affairs, but those numbers will be hard to come by in this high-profile matchup, as the Cavaliers are surrendering just 47.4 points on 39.4 percent shooting over the same time period.

Since the start of the 2012-13 campaign, the squad is 12-7 SU and 8-9 ATS when playing with one or less days rest.

 

Series History
The Cavaliers are 51-128 SU all-time against the Tar Heels, including a forgettable 6-65 mark when playing in Chapel Hill—falling in defeat in 23 of 26 games inside the Smith Center.

Virginia has compiled a 12-18 SU record against ranked opponents during the Tony Bennett era, with wins over Maryland and Notre Dame this season.

 

Board Up
The Tar Heels lead the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage, while they occupy the fifth spot in terms of grabbing boards on the defensive end.

North Carolina generates a lot of its scoring on the glass, but it could find it hard to score points in that category Monday night, as Virginia ranks fifth in the country in defensive rebounding.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Cavaliers as one of their top NCAA Basketball picks, as the Tar Heels are 0-4-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games played.

NCAA Basketball Pick:  Virginia Cavaliers Pick ‘Em at Bookmaker

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