The Virginia Cavaliers carry an undefeated record into Tuesday’s showdown with the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Read on for our Virginia-Michigan picks and predictions.
No. 3 Virginia will look to add to its non-conference resume with a road test against Michigan on Tuesday as part of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.
The Cavaliers are off to a 5-0 start, which includes wins over Baylor and Illinois during a midseason tournament in Las Vegas. The Wolverines are 5-1, with their lone hiccup being a 87-62 loss to Arizona State.
Virginia vs. Michigan Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Nov. 29, 9:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
Virginia vs. Michigan Odds
Virginia vs. Michigan Odds Analysis
The spread hasn’t moved since the open, with Virginia still listed as a 3.5-point road favorite at most sportsbooks.
As for the total, there has been a slight drop in the market since opening at 131.5. The total is now down to the 128-129 range, depending on the sportsbook. WynnBET is still listing a 129 for those looking for the best place to play an Under bet, while Over bettors should target DraftKings’ line of 128.
Virginia vs. Michigan Picks
- ATS: Michigan +3.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Over/Under: Over 128 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Prop: Hunter Dickinson Over 16.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)
Virginia vs. Michigan ATS Pick
Michigan +3.5 (-110) ★★★★
It's tough to bet against the Cavaliers after their start to the season, but this game should be a true coin-flip with a friendly crowd for the Wolverines in Ann Arbor.
Tony Bennett has another strong defensive squad, with Virginia ranking 14th in defensive efficiency, via Kenpom. But the Cavaliers are letting teams shoot 34% from beyond the arc (No. 202 in the country) on the young season. Michigan is shooting just 31.8% from long range, but expect more shots to go down for Juwan Howard’s squad in this matchup. Guard Jett Howard is 18-for-41 from beyond the arc to lead the way for Michigan.
Michigan also might be a bit underrated due to its lopsided loss to Arizona State, especially since ShotQuality’s final score in that game was actually a 73-65 win for Michigan. This feels like a good time to buy low on the Wolverines, with a 3.5-point spread in a favorable environment by placing the bet at FanDuel.
Virginia vs. Michigan O/U Pick
Over 128 (-110) ★★★★
Betting an Under in a Virginia game used to be a cheat code. The Cavaliers always seem to play at a methodical pace while boasting one of the better defenses in the country every year under Bennett.
This year’s UVA team is still slow, but it's shooting the lights out to start the season. Virginia is fourth in the country with a 44.8% clip from 3-point range. The Cavaliers have gone Over their point total thrice already, including their 86-79 win over Baylor when the total was 132.5.
We’ve already explained why the Wolverines are due for some positive shooting regression in this matchup, and it doesn’t hurt that this marks their lowest total of the year by 11 points. It makes sense why the market jumped on the Under at first, but there is some buy-back opportunity with the current listing at DraftKings.
Virginia vs. Michigan Prop Pick
Dickinson Over 16.5 points (-120) ★★★★
Michigan will need a strong performance from its best player to have a shot Tuesday. Fortunately for the Wolverines, center Hunter Dickinson should be able to deliver. Dickinson has only cleared this total twice, but he’s finished in double figures in all but one game.
The great thing about Dickinson is that he’s able to score in a bunch of different ways. He’s averaging 1.1 points per possession on post-up plays, per Synergy, but he’s also produced on putbacks (1.6 PPP) and cuts (1.7 PPP) at less volume. The Wolverines should lean on their 7-foot-1 center in this matchup.
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Virginia vs. Michigan picks made 11/29/2022 at 11 a.m. ET