Villanova vs. Kansas Same Game Parlay: Will Wildcats Ride 3-Point Shooting to Win?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 31, 2022 6:52 AM EDT • 2 min 42 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MARCH 26: Collin Gillespie #2 of the Villanova Wildcats reacts during the second half against the Houston Cougars in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Elite 8 Round at AT&T Center on March 26, 2022 in San Antonio, Texas. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Carmen Mandato / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Like they did in 2018, the Villanova Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks meet for a spot in the national championship. Let's dive into our Villanova-Kansas same-game parlay picks for Saturday's Final Four matchup.

A Villanova-Kansas matchup being the undercard on Saturday means there's a historically loaded Final Four. The Wildcats and Jayhawks have met eight times since 2004, with Villanova holding a 5-3 edge. Three of those matchups came in the NCAA Tournament (2013 Sweet 16, 2016 Elite Eight, 2018 Final Four), with Villanova winning two.

Our three-leg same-game parlay includes alternate lines on the point spread and total, which leads to a 12-point adjustment on the two original numbers. Additionally, we identify a player prop paying plus money that brings our parlay payout to a juicy +400.

Here are my same-game parlay picks for Saturday’s Villanova-Kansas matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Villanova-Kansas Same-Game Parlay Picks

Villanova +8.5 alternate spread(-200)???? Villanova-Kansas Under 141.5 alternate total(-330)?????Eric 3-pointers made Over 0.5 (+150)???

Top Villanova-Kansas Same-Game Parlay Predictions

Villanova +8.5 alternate spread (-200)

Villanova's players and coaches know that style points don't matter, and they're now forced to look past a historically poor shooting performance against Houston. The Wildcats became the first team since 1971 to win an Elite Eight game while shooting worse than 30% from the floor, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Few squads are better defensively than Houston, but the optics of Villanova's gritty win compared to Kansas' dominant 26-point victory over Miami will lead to many bettors backing the Jayhawks. However, we respect Jay Wright and his program too much to take the bait.

Villanova was already dealing with depth issues coming into this game, and now Justin Moore has torn his Achilles. But sixth man (now starter) Caleb Daniels was already playing heavy minutes, and the Wildcats were productive offensively in their one game without Moore.

Villanova beat Connecticut 85-74 on Feb. 5 with Moore sitting, and his absence won't hurt the Wildcats' chances now. Feel confident while taking the extra four points of spread value to be safe (the original line is Villanova +4.5).

Villanova-Kansas Under 141.5 alternate total (-330)

Let's also add eight points of value through this alternate total, bringing the line from 133.5 to 141.5.

Villanova already plays at one of the slowest tempos in Division I (345th out of 358 teams). Now the Wildcats will likely want this game to be played at a snail's pace with such a depleted bench.

Regardless of tempo, Wright's teams have always been comfortable against Bill Self's system. The Wildcats have held the Jayhawks to fewer than 60 points three times over five meetings since 2013.

Villanova was content to use most of the shot clock during its Elite Eight matchup against Houston. Taking that approach even further will lead to limited possessions, making us confident the Under will cash.

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Dixon 3-pointers made Over 0.5 (+150)

This leg of the parlay is adding most of our real value, with Draftkings offering +150 odds on Dixon hitting at least one 3-pointer.

Villanova's recent success against Kansas has been mostly due to the Wildcats' ability to space the floor with five perimeter shooters, pulling the Jayhawks' bigs away from the basket. That's largely why Villanova made a Final Four-record 18 threes over 40 attempts in the 2018 matchup. Kansas' Udoka Azubuike wasn't comfortable defending Villanova's Omari Spellman on the perimeter, and the Wildcats took advantage. Look for Wright to exploit a similar weakness with David McCormack guarding Dixon.

Dixon doesn't possess the same 3-point shooting talent as Spellman, but he's gone 17-of-33 (51.5%) in 2021-22. He's also made at least one 3-pointer in three of the school's last four games. With Moore out, Wright may look Dixon's way for additional perimeter shooting, putting him in some pick-and-pop situations against Villanova's guards.

Combined Odds: Villanova +8.5 (-200) + Villanova-Kansas Under 141.5 (-330) + Dixon Over 0.5 3-pointers made (+150) = +400

Where to Bet on Villavona-Kansas Same-Game Parlay Picks

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Villanova-Kansas same-game parlay picks made 3/30/2022 at 4:17 p.m.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.