USC Trojans vs. SMU Mustangs - March Madness Picks East Region, First Round

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, March 16, 2017 8:33 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 16, 2017 8:33 PM UTC

Can USC carry over the momentum gathered from a 17-point come from behind victory over Providence on Tuesday night? Will SMU continue on a roll which has seen them win 26 of their last 27 games? Ross Benjamin has those answers plus much more.

  USC Trojans vs. SMU Mustangs

East Region, First Round
March 17th, 3::10 pm E.T.

The East Region’s #6 SMU Mustangs will take on the #11 seed USC Trojans on Friday afternoon at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Current March Madness odds show SMU as a 6.5-point favorite across the board. The total ranges from 138.0 to 140.0.


Stirring First Four Comeback for Trojans

USC began their NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night in Dayton against Providence. The Trojans weren’t only able to overcome a huge 17-point 2nd half deficit and come away with a 75-71 victory, they also managed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. On a negative note, despite coming out on top, USC allowed Providence to shoot 49%.


Red-Hot Mustangs Seek Revenge

The SMU Mustangs enter the NCAA Tournament having gone a superb 26-1 during their last 27 games. Additionally, 19 of those 26 wins came by 10-points or more. As a matter of fact, SMU is a remarkable 20-3 ATS in their previous 23 lined games, and they were a favorite on 22 of those occasions.

You can’t play much better than SMU has over their previous 5 games. The Mustangs have shot a blistering hot 55.7% during that time frame, and converted on an incredible 47.5% of its 3-point attempts. Conversely, they held those last 5 opponents to just 64.8 points per game, and limiting them to a miserable 36.4% shooting. Furthermore, if SMU needed an extra motivational factor, they can use their earlier season (11/28/16) 5-point loss at USC as added inspiration.


Profitable ATS Betting Angle

SMU is coming off a 71-56 win over Cincinnati in the AAC championship game, and limited the Bearcats to a horrible 31.1% shooting day. SMU is a very good 3-point shooting team, and that’s proven by their stellar 40.6% conversion rate on those attempts. Meanwhile, USC has canned 36.3% of its 3-point shots this season. When combining the previously mentioned statistical data, it qualifies for a lucrative college basketball betting system that solidifies one of my March Madness picks.

Any neutral site favorite (SMU), coming off a game in which they held their opponents to 33% or less shooting, and has made 36.5% or better of their 3-point shots for the season, versus an opponent (USC) that’s made between 32.5% and 36.5% of their 3-point shots, resulted in those favorites going 34-9 ATS (79.1%) during the past 5 seasons. The average line in those 43 games was -7.0, and the favorites had a sizable +11.9 point per game differential during those contests.

Free NCAAB Pick: SMU -6.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3175942, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,93,123,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here