Upset Alert: NCAA Basketball Pick Value Lies with LSU Tonight as Tigers Host Texas A&M

SBR Staff

Tuesday, February 17, 2015 7:06 PM GMT

Revenge is in the air when LSU visits Texas A&M in today’s college basketball match up. I believe the value goes to the Tigers but first lets check out this NCAA basketball betting preview.

The Revenge Factor
Last week we went the other way of the revenge angle and were correct in taking Rider over Canisius. The difference between that game and this one is that LSU is the better team in my opinion.  It is difficult to beat a team twice in league, whether the teams match up well or not, but it is extremely hard to beat a better team twice.  Neither team has played another team twice this year but LSU was 2-2 last year in revenge situations (including being swept by Kentucky) and the Aggies only swept once out of three chances last year beating Tennessee twice.  Here is the key to me in LSU’s quest for revenge, a quote from Head Coach Jones about the first loss, “I thought we were our own worst enemy there in the middle part of the second half. We were sitting on about an eight, 10 point lead. We took some ill-advised shots early in the shot clock…We didn’t get paint touches. We missed those shots, and they got a couple of really good run outs in transition… They had a couple of easy scoring opportunities. Then, we allowed them to get back in the game.”  Seems to me Jones thought the Tigers gave the game away, he should have them extra prepared in this revenge spot.

 

A New Look
In the last three games the Tigers have altered their starting lineup.  With the new crew the last three games LSU has shot an average of over 50% from the field and 41% beyond the arc.  This is well above their season average of 46% and 34% respectively.  Despite even the new look LSU has played solid ball on the road winning games at West Virginia, Ole Miss, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee.  They know how to play tough on the road and should come into this game with a lot of momentum.

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A Half to Forget
Last time out LSU scored a measly 24 points in the second half against the Aggies.  That was their worst second half of the year… by far.  Since December we can only compare that half to the 26 they scored in the second half at Tennessee, the difference though is the Tigers were already up by 27 at intermission.  Sometimes teams struggle, but I doubt we see that same type of output from LSU this time around.

 

The Line
At most sports books like Pinnacle we see the college basketball odds makers have made the Aggies a 2 ½ point favorite. This is a telling line for our selection.  I think we have them in another situation where they have to make Texas A&M a favorite of some kind, especially since they won at LSU last time out.  But with revenge on their mind, a new line up, and the likelihood of a good team not repeating a poor performance I think the value lies with the LSU Tigers on the money line and you should add them to your NCAA basketball picks.

The pick:  LSU +145 at 5Dimes