Underdogs That Can Add Betting Value to Your NCAA Basketball Picks on Tuesday

Darin Zank

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 7:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015 7:15 PM UTC

This handicapper split a pair of underdog picks on Monday night, hitting with an outright winner on a nine-point dog. We go looking for more underdog value on Tuesday's NCAA Basketball odds slate.

Fading Texas After the Upset
The Longhorns just knocked off North Carolina on a buzzer-beater, causing a storming of the court in Austin. But can they come right back three days later and cover a big number against a sleepy foe like Appalachian State?

Texas is coming off its biggest win so far under new head coach Shaka Smart, upsetting North Carolina Saturday 84-82 on a put-back bucket at the buzzer. On the night the Longhorns hit 12 of 24 shots from 3-point range, but also missed nine of 23 free-throws.

So the 'Horns have won four in a row to reach 6-3 on the season, as they go through the learning curve with the new coach and his systems. But they're are only 3-5 ATS, in part because they couldn't cover at -9 against Texas-Arlington or at -21 against Samford.

Appalachian State, meanwhile, returned almost the entire roster this season from a team that went 12-17 last season, so some improvement is expected. The Mountaineers are picked to finish in the middle of the Sun Belt Conference again, but with some luck they could end up in the upper division.

ASU is off to a 2-6 start, after falling to Hofstra nine days ago 86-80. But the Mountaineers covered rather easily as 12-point dogs on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden. Appalachian State led what's supposed to be a pretty good Pride team by a bucket at the half, and hung on for the cash despite shooting just 42 percent from the floor.

Just prior to that the Mountaineers lost a tough game to Stephen F. Austin, and just before that they lost to Mercer by one point, easily covering at +13.

Texas will throw its version of havoc at the Mountaineers, but ASU has a pair of senior guards who will help to handle it. Also, the Longhorns are shooting just 63 percent from the FT line this season, and missed free-throws can be costly when trying to cover spreads, especially one this large.

Texas is coming off a huge effort against Carolina, and a letdown of some degree seems likely. Tuesday's NCAA Basketball odds market opened the Longhorns at -21 for this game, surely in part due to Saturday's result. Most shops then dropped that line to -20 in the early betting.


Final Analysis
Texas is very likely to win this game, based on talent alone, but 20 points is asking a lot. Also, there's just no way the Longhorns will be as “up” for Appalachian State as they were for the Tar Heels. If the Mountaineers can limit the turnovers, play some defense and hold their own on the boards they can cover this line. We like ASU, getting 20 points at Bookmaker, for one of our NCAA Basketball picks for Tuesday.

NCAA Basketball Picks: Appalachian State +20 at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2935553, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Elsewhere in Doggy Land
Wisconsin is favored by two touchdowns at home over Texas A&M-CC, but the Badgers shouldn't be favored by that much over anybody at the moment, let alone a team riding a six-game winning streak. We like the Islanders, getting 14 points at 5Dimes.

NCAA Basketball Picks: Texas A&M-CC +14 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2935567, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Can DePaul Get Back on Track?
Finally, DePaul, trying to work its way back to respectability, recently won four games in a row, but got upset last time out by Arkansas-Little Rock. Stanford, meanwhile, recently lost three in a row, although it's won its last two. The Cardinal are favored by a touchdown at home, but they too have trouble hitting free-throws. In anticipation of a bounce-back effort we'll take the Blue Demons, getting 8.5 points at JustBet.

NCAA Basketball Picks: DePaul +8.5 at JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2935568, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here