Underdog Value Lies with Porter Back for Missouri & New Mexico State Facing Shorthanded Clemson

Charles Stark

Friday, March 16, 2018 3:26 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 16, 2018 3:26 PM UTC

For the second day of the big dance, we’re going to take a look at two underdogs in Missouri and New Mexico State.  Oddsmakers have come out making Florida State and Clemson slight favorites respectively in these two matchups, but could the two underdogs pull off the upset an advance?

Florida State versus Missouri

Of course, the big issue with Missouri is the fact that they have Michael Porter back which I think will be a really solid emotional boost. Oddsmakers have come out this game making Florida State a -1.5 favorite but for my NCAAB pick in this matchup, I will take Missouri to win this game straight up. On the season they only have one common opponent in Florida where Florida State won on the road by 17, and Missouri lost at home by two. Missouri has played tremendous defense all season allowing opponents just 40.7% which ranks 19th in the country. As well they are in the very top part of the country in most defensive categories across the board. They don’t push a lot of tempo but they have been extremely efficient on the season and shoot a very solid 39.2% from distance. Florida State has great offensive numbers shooting 47.7% overall, and their defensive numbers are decent as well allowing opponents to shoot just 42.1%. However, they have not defended from beyond the arc very well allowing opponents to shoot 36.4% which will be the point of contention.

Free NCAAB Pick: MissouriBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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New Mexico State versus Clemson

Even with Clemson losing one of their best players they still have been made a very solid -5 favorite in this spot against the smaller conference Aggies. Still, this is a polished New Mexico State team so for my pick, I will take them plus the points. On the season they have just one common opponent in Miami in which both teams won by 9 points; New Mexico State doing so in Hawaii and Clemson at home. I really think this game goes down the wire because both teams have played such tremendous defense on the year. Clemson is allowing opponents to shoot just 41% overall and rank 17th in the country in opponent shooting efficiency, while New Mexico State has allowed opponents to shoot just 39.8% overall and rank 11th in opponent shooting efficiency. Offensively they are pretty comparable across the board, but it is always tough to make a good analysis when one team is from such a tough conference such as Clemson in the ACC. Still, early in the season New Mexico State played some tough competition and pulled off nice wins versus aforementioned Miami, and Davidson, and I like for them to hang in this contest.

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Free NCAAB Pick: New Mexico StateBest Line Offered: Intertops

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