Underdog Value: Duo Of Red-Hot NCAA Basketball Picks For Monday

Ross Benjamin

Monday, February 1, 2016 4:23 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 1, 2016 4:23 PM UTC

Our college basketball expert Ross Benjamin has gone 11-4-1 ATS the last six betting days with his underdog NCAA basketball picks. Go inside for Monday’s two best plays.

Oakland vs. Northern Kentucky 7:00 PM ET
Ordinarily, I would put a lot of weight into a revenge situation when it involves a team that possesses a decidedly better resume than their opponent. But to base a selection just on that premise alone would promote shallow thinking, and exhibit a shortcut type of handicapping approach.

Northern Kentucky played at Oakland just 13 days ago, and as a sizable 13.0 point underdog, they came away with a decisive 90-73 win. They held one of the best shooting teams in the country to just 37.9% from the floor during that huge upset win. Northern Kentucky also owned the boards in that contest with a massive +15 advantage.

Oakland is unequivocally an explosive offensive team. However, they’ve displayed a glaring weakness on the defensive end all season long. That’s been especially evident in their last five games. During that stretch, Oakland opponents have averaged 81.8 points per contest and shot a sizzling hot 48.3% from the field.

This appears to be one of those cases where a team which is seemingly better on paper, just doesn’t match up well versus a perceived inferior opponent. The first encounter this season between these teams exemplifies that theory. Current NCAA basketball odds at Heritage, provides me with the best number for this specific NCAA basketball pick.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Northern Kentucky +6
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Texas vs. Baylor 9:00 PM ET
I really like the way Texas is beginning to come together under first year head coach Shaka Smart. The Longhorns are 5-1 in their last six games, and their only blemish in that sequence came in a 9 point defeat at Kansas. During this recent successful run, Texas has knocked off both #14 Iowa State and had a road upset win at #9 West Virginia. Texas also defeated #2 North Carolina earlier this season. A trademark of Shaka Smart’s teams at VCU was their aggressive defensive play which turned games into a chaotic pace. In Texas’ last seven games they’re a combined +27 in the turnover department. In addition, the Longhorns have held opponents to 37.1 shooting from the floor, and allowed them to convert on only 29.9% of its three point attempts. Those recent numbers have Shaka Smart’s fingerprints all over it.

If you’re contemplating laying the points tonight with Baylor, I would be remiss if a recent Bears vulnerability wasn’t mentioned. The Bears have allowed their opponents to shoot an alarming 54.2% from the field over its previous three games.

If Texas can at least hold their own on the boards tonight against a very good rebounding team, they’ll have a realistic chance of pulling the outright upset. Regardless, I’m going to take the points as an additional bonus for one of my Monday college basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Texas +5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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