Underdog Value Betting: Red-Hot NCAA Basketball Picks For Friday

Ross Benjamin

Friday, March 11, 2016 3:48 PM GMT

Our analyst shares his top two underdog plays on Friday’s card. He’s been a stellar 18-8 (69%) with his NCAA basketball picks over the past twelve betting days.

Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
A couple of red-hot teams square off in the Conference USA Tournament Semifinals. Old Dominion enters today on a six game winning streak. On the other hand, Western Kentucky has gone 6-1 in their previous seven games, and was a perfect 7-0 ATS in those contests. Each of these teams recent success can be attributed to somewhat opposite factors, and I’ll briefly touch upon both.

During their current win streak, Old Dominion has played absolutely stifling defense. Over the course of those contests, they’ve allowed a paltry 57.3 points per game, and held their opponents to just 36.1% shooting from the floor. The Monarchs have had their moments offensively this season, but they’re not a very good perimeter shooting team. As a matter of fact, they’ve converted on only 29.6% of its three point attempts for the season. The Monarchs overcompensate for some of its offensive deficiencies with a fairly high volume of second chance opportunities. They’re averaging a lofty 12 offensive rebounds per contest. They’ll be hard pressed to dominate on the offensive glass today. Western Kentucky is a +12 rebound per game differential during its previous six contests, and has limited conference opponents to just 8 offensive boards per outing.

Speaking of Western Kentucky, they’re certainly peaking at the right time, and are unequivocally playing its best basketball of the season right now. They’ve been especially good offensively over their last six games. During that stretch, they’re shooting a blistering hot 53.1%, and are averaging a robust 81.3 points per game. They’ll be playing with same season double revenge today as well. They lost both of their regular season contests to Old Dominion this season by narrow margins of 3 and 6 points. Both of those games took place before the torrid money making run that they’re currently on.

The current NCAA basketball odds provide me with a best combination of number and price for this wager.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Western Kentucky +4
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Memphis vs. Tulsa
Revenge is usually a major factor when handicapping conference tournament games, especially when it involves a team with a winning record like Tulsa. However, this is one of those rare occurrences where I see revenge working as a negative aspect, and it will play a major role when making my NCAA basketball picks today.

These teams met less than two weeks ago, and Memphis came away with an impressive 92-82 win. There was a glaring statistic that really caught my attention pertaining to that matchup. Memphis held a huge 40-25 rebounding advantage in that game, and from watching tape, the Tigers frontcourt just overmatched Tulsa’s nig men. There’s certainly adjustment that can be made by any coaching staff against any previous opponent they’ve already faced. However, that type of physical dominance on the boards may be neutralized to some degree, but is still very probable to prevail even if it’s not by such a lopsided margin.

Memphis is a team that vastly underachieved this year. They’ve beat good teams like Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Tulsa. However, they also sustained some inexplicable February losses against conference bottom feeders Tulane and South Florida. One thing I’m certain of, they’re a very athletic team that when on their game can be extremely dangerous to play against. Teams such as Memphis seem to rise up when the spotlight shines at its brightest.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Memphis +4
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle