Underdog Betting Value: Today's Prized NCAA Basketball Picks

Ross Benjamin

Monday, March 7, 2016 3:30 PM GMT

Our analyst shares his top two underdog picks on Monday’s card. He’s been a stellar 12-6 (67%) with his NCAA basketball underdog picks over the past eight betting days.

Miami-Ohio vs. Ball State 7:00 PM ET
Momentum is certainly on the side of Miami in this first round MAC Tournament matchup. Miami finished the regular season by going 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS during their final four games. Their only loss in that sequence came to Ohio by a narrow 2 point margin in its season finale. During those four contests, Miami played outstanding defense, holding its opponents to just 63.8 points per game, and 39.5% shooting from the field. Miami will also be playing with same season double revenge tonight. They lost both regular season matchups against Ball State, and one of those defeats came by just 2 points on the road.

Ball State has gone a less than inspiring 3-4 in its last seven home games, and is only 2-6 ATS during their previous eight at John E. Worthen Arena in Muncie, Indiana. The Cardinals finished the regular season with two straight up favorite losses against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan.

The current NCAA basketball odds provide me with a best combination of number and price for this underdog wager.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Miami-Ohio +7.5 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Pepperdine vs. St. Mary’s 9:00 PM ET
St. Mary’s has enjoyed a terrific 26-4 season thus far. However, 2 of those 4 losses came at the hands of Pepperdine. The Waves have certainly had St. Mary’s number, and let’s take a look at why. First of all, St. Mary’s has been an excellent shooting team this season, connecting on a superb 50.9% of their field goal attempts, and converting an outstanding 41.2% from three point territory. During their two games versus Pepperdine, the Gaels have shot just 42.2% and made only 26.2% of its three point attempts. St. Mary’s also has compiled a very good +7 rebound per game differential in this 2015-2016 campaign. In their two games versus Pepperdine, they were at just a +2.5 rebound per game margin.

When running queries on my 4D handicapping software, I was able to discover very intriguing information regarding this matchup and situation. Conference Tournament single digit favorites playing with same season double revenge, versus an opponent with a win percentage of better than .516, resulted in those favorites covering just 24% of the time since 1990. “Numbers don’t lie, and liars don’t figure”. I’m going with the underdog in this game tonight for one of my NCAA basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Pepperdine +7.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes