Underdog Betting: Two Dangerous Free Picks To Cash On Thursday

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, March 10, 2016 2:25 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 10, 2016 2:25 PM UTC

Our analyst shares his top two underdog plays on Thursday’s card. He’s been a stellar 16-8 (67%) with his NCAA basketball picks over the past eleven betting days.

Texas State vs. Georgia State
Texas State was an absolute money maker during the final stretch of regular season play. They went a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games, and won four of those games outright. They’ll also be playing with double revenge stemming from two losses to Georgia State this season. On a positive note in that regard, they lost by just 3 at Georgia State, and easily covered as a 7.0 point underdog. Texas State has been stellar defensively over its previous five games, allowing just 64.4 points per game, and holding their opponents to only 38.7% shooting.

Georgia State began the season by going 11-3 in their first fourteen games. Things have gone a bit sideways since that time. As a matter of fact, they’re a dismal 4-9 during the previous thirteen games. Georgia State backers have taken a beating this season, evidenced by their team going an awful 8-19 ATS in lined games this season. The Panthers have converted on a very good 38.2% of their three point attempts over their previous five games. However, they’ll be facing a Texas State team today that’s held its opponents to 31.7% three point shooting during their last five.

Taking the underdog in this contest certainly must coincide with liking them to win outright. After all, current NCAA basketball odds boards at 5Dimes has them as a small 2.5 point underdog. Even in light of having very little wiggle room to cover without winning the game straight up, I’ll still take the points as an additional bonus.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Texas State +2.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
These teams played two very tight games during the regular season, and there’s nothing that leads me to believe we won’t seen more of the same this evening. The home team won each of those games by 5 and 4 points respectively. Another close contest lends itself to favoring the underdog in this contest, and the logic to support that extends beyond just those two regular season results.

The inconsistencies that Oklahoma has displayed since early February are certainly concerning. The Sooners are a terrible 2-7 ATS over their previous nine games, and lost outright on four separate occasions. As a matter of fact, one of their five wins came as a 4.5 point underdog at West Virginia, and they were a dismal 1-7 ATS as a favorite over that previously mentioned nine game stretch. Ironically, their erratic play of late was magnified in a win and not a loss, and took place during the Sooners final home game. They nearly squandered what appeared to be an insurmountable 24 point lead against Baylor, and managed to escape with a narrow 73-71 victory.

Iowa State has also gone 5-4 in their final nine regular season games, but two of the four losses came in overtime, and each of those defeats in extra time took place on the road. The Cyclones have been one of the best shooting teams in the country all season long. During their last eight games alone they’ve shot a sizzling hot 51.6%. Iowa State has an undersized front line with no player taller than 6’8, and at times this season has been dominated on the glass.

However, in their two encounters with Oklahoma, they battled the Sooners evenly in that regard. They’ve also been labeled by many as a below average defensive team. Much of their issues on that end of the floor stems from allowing too many second chance opportunities. Case in point, they’ve allowed their last five opponents to average 14 offensive rebounds per game, and it forces them to play defense for an extended period of time. The good news, Oklahoma was only able to garner a combined 13 rebounds in its two encounters against the Cyclones.

I’m siding with the underdog in this contest for one of my Thursday NCAA basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Iowa State +3.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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