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UCLA vs. USC Odds, Picks, Predictions College Basketball: Who Will Win in Rivalry Rematch?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: January 26, 2023 2:57 PM EST • 3 min 12 sec read.

Tyger Campbell #10 and Jaime Jaquez Jr. #24 of the UCLA Bruins high five as we look at the conference championship odds.
Tyger Campbell #10 and Jaime Jaquez Jr. #24 of the UCLA Bruins high five after a basket and a foul at UCLA Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, California. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images via AFP.

The USC Trojans will look for revenge when they host the UCLA Bruins in a rivalry matchup on Thursday, Jan. 26. Read on for our UCLA-USC college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

Nearly three weeks after their first regular-season meeting, USC and UCLA are set to face off inside Galen Center for a rematch between two rivals. The Bruins were victorious in the Jan. 5 meeting with a 60-58 win, in which the game really only got dicey in the end. UCLA (17-3, 8-1 Pac-12) is coming off a 58-52 loss to Arizona, which snapped a 14-game win streak.

Can USC (14-6, 6-3 Pac-12) make it two losses in a row for UCLA? The Trojans are 3-1 since their last meeting with the Bruins, and are coming off a 77-69 road victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Here is our best UCLA vs. USC college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college basketball best bets for Thursday and our best March Madness betting sites.

UCLA vs. USC game info

Date: Thursday, Jan. 26, 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA

UCLA vs. USC odds

UCLA vs. USC odds analysis

UCLA opened as a 5-point road favorite, but the line has dropped to 4.5 at most of our best sportsbooks. KenPom.com projects a 70-64 victory for the Bruins, but the Trojans covered the spread in three of the last four head-to-head meetings in this rivalry.

As for the total, this line opened at 131 before soaring up to 134 and 134.5 on Thursday morning. The sudden movement was a result of Right Angle Sports releasing a play on the Over during Thursday’s live stream with Adam Chernoff. This, of course, was disappointing because the total was as low as 130.5 when I started writing this article. It is fine, I'm not mad.

That said, comparing the betting lines from Thursday's game to the meeting that took place three weeks ago is rather interesting. The Bruins opened as 14-point favorites, but were bet down to 11 prior to tipoff in which the Trojans covered by nine points. We were actually on the underdog in that game. The total closed at 137 before finishing Under by 19 points.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

UCLA vs. USC pick

UCLA -4.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. USC ⭐⭐⭐

Well, this was going to be a write-up about taking the Over until the line moved four points in a matter of minutes. If you want to buy back in on the Under, that’s probably not the worst strategy. I project this total at 136, though both teams rank outside the top 150 in pace and this game could easily be a bit of a grind if shots don't fall.

Instead, we will be taking UCLA to cover the reasonable spread because the market has overreacted to the first meeting. The Bruins were in complete control in the first half with a 44-26 lead at the break, but went scoreless for eight minutes in the second half to ultimately make things come down to the very end. In addition, ShotQuality graded that game as a 16-point win for UCLA and a lot of missed layups proved to be the difference.

UCLA is coming off a road loss to Arizona, but this is one of the better teams in the country. The Bruins are No. 3 in KenPom’s latest overall rankings, thanks to being third in adjusted defensive efficiency and 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. The senior duo of Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. will be ready for this environment, and we expect them to do a better job of avoiding a lull this time around.

The Bruins are 12-8 against the spread so far this season and covered the number in each of their last three victories. Assuming they can take care of business on the road, that trend will continue to cash this three-star pick.

UCLA vs. USC best odds

DraftKings (-105)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.5
-105-110-110-110-110

My projection for this game is 6.5, so I’m comfortable laying the points with the road team up to 5 in this case. Fortunately for us, we are getting a 4.5-point spread across all our top-rated sportsbooks at the time of this writing.

DraftKings is offering the best deal with -105 juice on the favorite. That might not seem like much, but a break-even win rate of 51.2% on a -105 vig is certainly worth taking advantage of.

UCLA-USC pick made 1/26/2022 at 11:20 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
After graduating with a journalism degree from the University of Kansas in 2017, Shane Jackson covered college sports for a few years before moving to Las Vegas to pursue a career in sports betting. He created sports betting content for WynnBET and served as a sports gambling content director for Bet Chicago Sports. Shane’s favorite sports to watch and bet on are NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, WNBA, and golf. Follow Shane on Twitter (@SJacksonBET) to get access to all of his betting analysis.