Two Primetime Total Selections For Your NCAA Basketball Picks

Mark Lathrop

Monday, February 22, 2016 4:41 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 22, 2016 4:41 PM UTC

Our NCAAB totals expert looks to start another winning week with two selections from Monday's card that should bring wagering value. Check our free NCAA Basketball picks inside.

Virginia vs. Miami 
In an ACC contest to determine who is still in contention for the regular season title, the Virginia Cavaliers (21-5, 10-4) travel south to visit the Miami Hurricanes (21-5, 10-4). This is the second matchup of the season for these teams, with the first game going to Virginia on their home court 66-58 in mid-January. That game went under the listed total of 131 against the NCAA basketball odds, and for this game the bar is set even lower. Right now you can find the O/U total sitting at 128 across all sports books.

In that first game it was Virginia who had the hot hand from the floor, as they converted at a 51.1% rate. That was just slightly higher than Virginia’s numbers for the entire season, as their offense is averaging a very efficient 49.6% from the floor this year. Virginia held Miami to just 42% shooting, including 6-22 from three-point range. The Hurricanes also hurt their cause by shooting just 58.8% from the charity stripe. We can expect that the free throw shooting will go back to average on their home floor.

Virginia averages 66.9 points per game on the road this year and 71.1 points per game overall. They have been nothing but consistent, and have posted at least 61 points in every game this year. For Miami’s side, they average 77.3 points per game on their home court. Miami shouldn’t have to get to that number for this game to go over this low total. Virginia has the 2nd best defense in the land with 59.5 points allowed per game overall so I am looking for Miami to split the difference on their home court.

Virginia is coming off of a week long layoff while Miami comes into this game after losing 96-71 on Saturday at North Carolina. Look for a difference in intensity early which should lead to some quick transitional points and take Over 128 in this game as one of your Monday NCAAB Picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 127
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Iowa State vs. West Virginia 
Moving to the Big 12 now as we have Iowa State (19-8, 8-6) trying to keep up with West Virginia (20-7, 9-5) in the conference standings. These teams already met once earlier in the month, with West Virginia winning on the road at Iowa State, 81-76. That game pushed the listed total of 157 as the Mountaineers won outright as 5-point underdogs. The listed total for this game is also 157 across all sports books.

We have a clash in indicators for the scoring in this game as Iowa State scores an average of 81 points per game on the road, good for 8th in the NCAA, and West Virginia allows 60 points per game at home, good for a 16th ranking in the NCAA. Somethings got to give and the trends suggest that West Virginia’s defense will have the advantage in this game. The under is 8-1 in West Virginia’s last nine games at home, and the under is 4-2 in Iowa State’s last 6 games on the road.

Iowa State was dominated on the glass by West Virginia in their first meeting, losing the rebounding battle 41-23. That was the reason that West Virginia won, as both teams shot just over 48% from the field. That performance was above the average for West Virginia, who usually shoots 45% from the field.

I believe the first game between these two teams was the maximum pace that will be played, and West Virginia at home will be more focused on defense. Make Under 157 for this game one of your NCAA basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 157
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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