Two Horizon League Underdogs That Will Overachieve On Friday

Charles Stark

Friday, February 23, 2018 12:25 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 23, 2018 12:25 PM UTC

For NCAA Basketball Friday we are going to head to the Horizon conference when Northern Kentucky travels to take on Illinois Chicago, and Wright State visits Indiana Purdue at Indianapolis. 

Northern Kentucky vs Illinois Chicago

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Illinois Chicago +3Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

Earlier in the season Northern Kentucky absolutely throttled Illinois Chicago 86-51. With that sort of blowout it makes it a little bit surprising today that Northern Kentucky is just a -3 favorite in this spot, so for my NCAA pick I will go with the odds makers and back Illinois Chicago plus the points. Since that horrible loss back just before the New Year Illinois Chicago has only lost two games since that time and I look for them to possibly win this game straight up. Statistically, Illinois Chicago is decent offensively, but what I like is the fact they are very good on the defensive end allowing opponents to shoot just 41.4% overall and 33.3% from distance.

Northern Kentucky is also a good defensive team allowing just 41.7% shooting on the season overall, however that jumps to 44.4% on the road. Northern Kentucky has played very well on the road and are one of the rare teams where their road statistics percentage-wise jump up just a tad when they travel. That being said though this a great spot for Illinois Chicago to exact some revenge, and I think the oddsmakers are on top of the number.

Wright State vs IUPUI

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: IUPUI +5.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

At home earlier this season, Wright State handled business winning 60-52 versus IUPUI, and odds makers have made them a decent -5.5 favorite in this spot. Once again for my NCAA pick in this matchup I will back the underdog getting the points simply because IUPUI has played well at home this season. In conference at home they’ve only lost twice in league by five and four points respectively to Illinois Chicago and Youngstown State. This matchup will be much tougher for them but with some revenge on their mind and the fact statistically their numbers are better in the home and away disparity I think there is good value in grabbing the points. On the season IUPUI is shooting 42.4%, but that jumps to 46.5% at home. As well, they go from shooting 35.2% from distance to 36.8% at home. Wright State has traveled pretty well this season but statistically speaking they shoot at a less percentage across the board on the road when compared to IUPUI at home. This game should be pretty tight.

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