Tuesday's Top Sports Picks Based on Odds Movement & Betting Trends

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, March 3, 2015 5:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 3, 2015 5:23 PM UTC

Sports handicappers and those following the betting odds on Tuesday have seen wild line moves predicated on injuries both good and bad for Sacramento Kings & Chicago Bulls. 

With this we will delve into other games in which those making NBA picks are really moving the numbers based on preference, rather than outside factors. In addition, we review the numbers in the NHL and college basketball which are headed in different directions than what the sportsbooks presented. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (408-358 L143D)


NBA – Lakers vs. Hornets  7:05 ET TWC-SN, SPSO
Charlotte’s acquisition of Mo Williams has helped them recapture the scoring punch they've missed since losing Kemba Walker. Williams will look to take advantage of one of the league's worst defenses with the L.A. Lakers in town. The Hornets averaged 89.1 points a game in their first eight contests after losing Walker to a torn meniscus, after previously scoring 95.2 PPG when he was their leading scorer. Since Williams' arrival from Minnesota, the Hornets are at 95.6 PPG in his five games in Charlotte uniform and he’s averaged a robust 23.4 PPG. With the Lakers allowing a NBA-high 106.1 PPG, those placing sports picks have shoved the total from 190 to 192.5. This appears like a slam dunk until you realize the Hornets are for some reason 8-1 UNDER against teams conceding 46 percent or higher shooting percentage. 

NBA Pick – Lean Under


NBA – Celtics vs. Cavaliers  7:05 ET  CSN-NE, FS-OH
The Cavaliers have lost two straight mostly thanks to LeBron James 3 for 11 effort from the free throw line Sunday (time to play Hack-a-Bron?) and those working the NBA odds are starting to think Cleveland hot stretch is kaput, with a 7-4 SU and ATS record since Feb. 6th. With Boston having covered four in a row and seven of nine, they found the Celtics as +12.5 a good value and oddsmakers have lowered the C’s to +10. What you have to concern yourself with this contest is something I mentioned last week, the SU winner of a Cavaliers game is 34-2 ATS since Dec. 21st. 

NBA Pick – Lean Cleveland


College Basketball – Texas A&M vs. Florida 9:00 ET ESPNU
Florida tries to get back to .500 and build momentum for upcoming SEC tournament when hosting Texas A&M. The Gators had their second- best shooting performance of the season in toppling Tennessee 67-49, connecting on 57.1 percent and draining eight 3’s. The return of Dorian Finney-Smith made a massive difference for the Gators and they are expected to take an even bigger bite out of the Aggies, lifted from -2.5 to -5. While Florida is capable covering either number, Texas A&M is 11-5 SU and ATS in the SEC this season and Billy Donovan’s crew is 6-14 ATS as favorites in NCAA Basketball odds

NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean Texas A&M


College Basketball –Wright State vs. UI-Chicago 8:00 ET   W-ESPN
It is the opening round of the Horizon League tourney and people placing NCAA Basketball picks pounced on taking No.7 seed and visitor Wright State, changing them from +1.5 to -2. Why would bettors back a squad on a nine-game losing streak (1-8 ATS) and who lost twice to the team they are facing? The logic has to be the Blue Raiders despite the streak, get to start fresh and one of the losses was this just on Saturday at UIC (61-46), giving them double revenge and playing with the taste of defeat against the Flames, which is very fresh. Hard to like either team, but we’ll back the line move with the visitor. 

NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean Wright State at 5Dimes


NHL – Capitals vs. Blue Jackets 7:05 ET   CSN-DC, FS-OH
With Columbus in the throes of a six-game losing streak, Washington is the hockey bettor’s choice, moving from -150 to -170, before settling at -165 on the money line at last look. This much we can assume with the Capitals, the final outcome will largely depend on the first goal scored, as Washington is an NHL-best 29-5 SU when score first (only one regulation time loss) and among the worst in the league when they do not tally the initial goal at 5-25 SU. The Blue Jackets are 4-18 this season after two or more consecutive losses. 

NHL Pick – Washington wins


Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend: Atlanta is 16-3 ATS off a road win this season. 

NBA Totals Trend: Utah is 11-1 UNDER after playing a game as favorite this season. 

CBB ATS Trend: Villanova is 11-1 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend: Arizona is 2-14 as a home underdog this season. 

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