Trends Suggest Nebraska As The Sharp NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Michigan St.

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, January 20, 2016 12:38 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016 12:38 PM GMT

Michigan St.'s looking to bounce back after a loss to Wisconsin. Will they have enough to cover a double-digit spread and enter our NCAA basketball picks as they host Nebraska?

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2936073, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Cornhuskers +14
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

In a competitive Big Ten conference that includes five ranked teams at tip-off time, the 11th ranked Michigan State Spartans (16-3, 3-3) host the Nebraska Cornhuskers (11-8, 3-3) in Wednesday night college basketball action. With both teams currently holding 3-3 conference records, they are tied for seventh in the Big 10 standings. However, Nebraska has feasted on the bottom feeders in the conference for their wins. The odds makers certainly are not impressed, and have placed the Spartans as heavy favorites at home. Currently you will have to lay 14 points to take the Spartans at Pinnacle. One book has the O/U total listed in their NCAA basketball odds boards, and that is Bookmaker with an initial line of 140.

 

Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is coming off of nail biting one-point loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point favorite. Looking at the box score a significant disparity in foul shooting jumps off the page, as Wisconsin was able to get to the free throw line an amazing 36 times in the game, making 29 of them. That came on the heels of a 28 to 15 foul disadvantage called on Michigan State.

Michigan State star Denzel Valentine led the Spartans in scoring in the game, scoring 23 points on 8-19 shooting from the field, and adding 7 rebounds. The senior guard from Lansing has averaged 17.9 points per game over the season along with 7.7 rebounds per game and 6.6 assists. He has filled up the stat sheet over the last two years and the beginning of this season is no exception.

This Michigan State team is deep with seniors, with the second leading scorer being senior guard, Bryn Forbes, with 13.6 points per game. Senior forward, Matt Costello, leads the team with 7.8 rebounds per game as well. The third leading scorer is another senior guard and West Virginia transfer, Eron Harris, with an average of 9.9 points per game. With all of the upper-classmen this should be a tight nit group.

 

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska comes into this game having won three straight against teams in the cellar of the Big 10 standings in Rutgers, Minnesota, and Illinois. The Cornhuskers were led by junior guard, Andrew White III, who scored 21 points in the game and added 13 rebounds to boot. His rebound total more than doubled anyone else playing in the game. Overall, Nebraska outrebounded Illinois 42-24 in the game.

Illinois tried to shoot their arms off, heaving up 37 three-point attempts and just making 11 of them in the game.

Nebraska won the last matchup between these two teams in Lincoln just about one year ago, 79-77. The Cornhuskers jumped on Michigan State early, and held a 14-point lead at halftime, before withstanding a late rally by the Spartans to hold on for the win. Denzel Valentine was clutch again for the Spartans, scoring 21 points in the game – second behind Travis Trice who scored 27. Trice is of course not on the roster any longer. Nebraska’s leading scorer in the game is also gone, Terran Petteway, which is a shame since he put up 32 points against the Spartans. The second leading scorer for the Cornhuskers is still around this year though, Shavon Shields, who scored 21 points in last year’s game.

 

Betting Analysis
What I like about this matchup is that nobody on the Nebraska roster has lost ATS against the Spartans, even when playing in Lansing. Michigan State hasn’t covered a double digit spread against Nebraska since February of 2012. Nebraska may lose by ten points, but that is well within the 14 we are getting. I’m taking the Cornhuskers +14 points at Pinnacle as one of my NCAA basketball picks.

Looking For More Free NCAA Basketball Picks? Don't Miss:
Villanova vs. Seton Hall

comment here