Trends Can Help Final Four Bettors Put Pieces Together

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, March 27, 2018 5:51 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 27, 2018 5:51 PM UTC

Are you looking for edges in Saturday's Final Four games? Let's check out some facts and figures pertaining to the matchups between Loyola-Chicago and Michigan, and Kansas and Villanova.

Final Four Trends

Like in any sport, when you get down to the last few games of the season it can be challenging to find edges. You know you want to bet on the contests, but the lines seem so spot-on it is hard to make a choice. For Saturday's Final Four semifinals we have scoured the interweb and dug into my treasure trove of intel to uncover whatever I could find to help you make your best college basketball picks.

Covering The Final Four Basics

Let's find teams and situations that can help you beat the college basketball odds.

No. 1 seeds as underdogs are 5-1 ATS: Kansas

No. 3 seeds have covered five of their last six contests: Michigan

Teams seeded eighth or lower are 2-5-1 ATS: Loyola-Chicago

Teams off four or more spread winners are 7-2-2 ATS: Villanova and Loyola-Chicago

Teams that scored 65 or fewer points in Elite 8 game are 7-2-1 ATS: Michigan

Big Ten favorites are on 4-0 ATS move: Michigan

Edge: Michigan

Broader Situational Look at Final Four

The last 16 times a Big East team has faced a Big 12 opponent, they are 11-5 SU and ATS. Villanova's last two wins and covers have come against Big 12 foes. Play on: Villanova

In the past 19 years when seeds are not matched, the higher seed is 27-10 and 24-11-2 ATS. Play on: Michigan

Final Four favorites of 3.5 to 7 points are 20-8 and 18-10 ATS since 1999. Play on: Michigan and Villanova

Teams seeded fourth or lower are 3-15 and 4-12-2 ATS from this point forward. Play against: Loyola-Chicago

Edge: Villanova and Michigan

All Systems Go

Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points such as Kansas, in a game involving two good teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points per game, after allowing 75 points or more in three straight contests. These teams are 21-56 ATS the last 20 years and lost by an average of 10.1 PPG.

Play "over" on neutral-court teams such as Kansas and Villanova that win 80 percent or more of their games playing with at least five days rest. In the past three seasons, this situation is 24-8 "over" (75 percent).

Play "over" on neutral-court teams such as Michigan and Loyola-Chicago when the total is between 120 and 129.5 points, in a game involving two good defensive teams permitting 40- to 42.5-percent shooting percentage, who are average rebounding teams (plus/minus 3) after 15 or more contests. In the past five seasons, this system is 24-8 "over" (75 percent).

Check out SBR’s college basketball odds page for updated lines. Also, head over to the March Madness Betting Headquarters for vital handicapping information, picks, and a list of the best sports books and live betting options for the tournament season.

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