Trap Scenarios Loom For Baylor, Kansas, TCU In Big 12 Action

Jay Pryce

Saturday, February 4, 2017 3:51 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 4, 2017 3:51 PM UTC

The Big 12 offers a slew of trap-game potential Saturday with Baylor, TCU, and Kansas facing particular let-down situations. In this article we cover which games present those scenarios and how you should bet them.

Kansas State vs #2 Baylor (-8)

Analysis: Kansas State shocked then-No.3 Baylor 79-72 in double-overtime the last time it tipped off at Ferrell Center in 2015. Going off 8.5-point underdogs, the Wildcats tripped up a 4-game covers spread for the Bears in the upset. Baylor hasn’t topped the number at home in a Big 12 matchup coming off an ATS win since. It’s 0-7 in this situation, coming perilously close to losing against Iowa State 65-63 as 8.5-point chalk and Texas Tech 65-61 as a 9-point favorite in the past month.

Kansas State proved it has the talent to win tough games on the road after knocking off West Virginia at the always-formidable Bramlage Coliseum three weeks ago. It’s dropped three in a row since, and squares off against three ranked opponents in their next trio of games. Sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble, this is a statement game, and possibly a last-ditch effort for a postseason birth. Expect a big effort form the Wildcats.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Kansas State +8Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Iowa State vs #3 Kansas (-11)

Analysis: Iowa State has given Kansas all it can handle the last couple of years. Including the Big 12 tournament, the Cyclones are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. On paper, the two programs are typically much closer than today. The double-digit spread is just the second of its kind in the last 13 matchups.

Kansas dominated the boards 41-24 en route to a 76-72 win at Ames three weeks ago. The Jayhawks benefited from 19 layups in the first half alone but played poorly throughout. Since the program had become embroiled in controversy: rape allegations at the basketball dorm, drug paraphernalia charges for suspended big man Carlton Bragg Jr., and now Josh Jackson and Lagerald Vick are persons of interest in a vandalism case. Following a win at No. 8 Kentucky and victory versus No. 2 Baylor last time out, in which both teams looked sloppy, a slip in performance will not shock. At some point, all the off-court drama will take it’s toll. The undersized Cyclones need to find a way to compete in the paint, however.

In the last calendar year, Iowa State is 4-1 ATS on the road after failing to cover in its last game, twice winning as a short-priced dog. Kansas, meanwhile, is 0-7 ATS at home against an opponent coming off a loss against the spread in this span. An outright upset is probably too farfetched, but expect the Cyclones to make it interesting late. Backing a double-digit spread in conference play is good value this time of year to boot.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Iowa State +11Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Other Potential Trap Games Include:Texas vs TCU (-6.5)

Analysis: Longhorns have covered 11 of last 12 road games. Four of the last five tipping off as 10-point dogs or less have finished within three points.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Texas +6.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Xavier vs No. 22 Creighton (-3)

Analysis: Let down spot for the Blue Jays after a big win at Butler. Xavier headed back to market value following a 1-6 ATS run.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Xavier +3Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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