Tournament Picks: Don't Look For Michigan To Pull Off Another Upset

Charles Stark

Saturday, March 12, 2016 12:49 PM GMT

Michigan seems to of caught lightning in a bottle and tonight they face another ranked team from Indiana in Purdue. NCAA basketball odds makers have made Purdue a solid favorite.

NCAA basketball odds experts have come out making Purdue a -6.5 favorite and the total around 143. This seems a little bit surprising considering Michigan just upset a very good Indiana team. As we start to break down the matchup though for one of my selectionsI will take Purdue minus the points and look for them to win this game around double digits.

 

Michigan Wolverines
Michigan averages 75 points per game and last time out versus Purdue scored the game's last 11 points to pull the upset. Yesterday we had Michigan plus the points versus Indiana and they pulled the upset, but tonight there are some difficult matchups for them as Purdue is a completely different monster. As I mentioned yesterday Michigan is a very efficient scoring team ranking 13th and 15th in the country in effective field-goal percentage and shooting efficiency respectively. They also shoot the ball from beyond the arc at 39% which ranks 15th in the country. Up and down the stat sheet statistically they are a really good scoring team but Purdue matches up with them strength for strength. The reason I like them last night was due to the fact that they matched up well with the Hoosiers across the board. However, tonight they will face a much stiffer test in a very good defensive team who can also score. 

 

Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue averages 77.9 points per game, are on a four-game winning streak, and average 17.6 assists per game which ranks sixth in the country. This is arguably the most underrated team in the country right now but I look for head coach Matt Painter and the Boilermakers to make a deep tournament push. They will have a tough test tonight against a Michigan team that is very good on the offensive end but Purdue can match up with them from the inside out. The Wolverines are one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country but Purdue only allows opponents to shoot 31.7% from beyond the arc. As well although Michigan is very efficient and rank among the top 20 in effective field-goal percentage and shooting efficiency, the Boilermakers ranks fifth defensively in both of those categories. Purdue also ranks among the best in the country defensively in opponent two point and overall shooting percentage. On the other side of the ball this team can score ranking in the top part of the country in most categories and are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Their defense though is what I like about them tonight and I look for them to win this game by around double digits. Add Purdue as the NCAA Basketball pick.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2999318, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NCAA Basketball Pick: Purdue -7.5 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes