Top Pac-12 Bubble Teams for NCAAA Basketball Betting Value Sunday

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, February 28, 2016 2:42 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 28, 2016 2:42 PM UTC

How many schools will the Pac-12 get into the NCAA Tournament? That question could partly be answered by what happens today. Here are my top three NCAA basketball picks for Sunday.

USC vs. California (-7 On NCAA Basketball Odds)
Right now both these schools are in the NCAA Tournament field but not by a lot. Southern Cal (19-9, 8-7) is currently projected as No. 9 seed in the Big Dance but definitely moving its way to the bubble after being in contention for the Pac-12 title much of the season. The Trojans were clobbered at mediocre Stanford on Thursday, 84-64, their lowest point total of the season, second straight double-digit loss and fourth defeat in five games overall. Perhaps not coincidentally, reserve forward Junior Darion Clark, a good rebounder, missed a sixth straight game with a shoulder injury. USC has been getting outrebounded nightly without him.

The NCAA selection committee very much takes into account how a team closed the regular season. USC finishes with two home games next week: vs. bubble team Oregon State and vs. No. 13 and conference leader Oregon. California (20-8, 10-5) is projected as a No. 7 seed but is trending up on a six-game winning streak. The Bears stayed unbeaten at home this season with a 75-63 win over UCLA on Thursday in which they never trailed thanks to a 13-1 run to start the game. This is a big one for Cal because it closes with road games at Arizona and Arizona State and the Bears have obviously lost all their games away from home. It's the only scheduled meeting of the season between USC and Cal.

The Bears haven’t gone finished a season unbeaten at home 1960 but will here. Looking at the NCAA basketball odds boards, you should definitely give the points. USC is 1-4 ATS in its past five road game. Cal is 5-0 ATS in its past five at home.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: California 7.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Arizona State vs. Colorado (-6.5 In NCAA Betting)
The Sun Devils (14-14, 4-11) can just play spoiler at this point as they are going to finish ahead of only Washington State in the Pac-12 standings. But this was always going to be a building season under first-year coach Bobby Hurley, the former Duke All-American point guard. ASU enters on a three-game losing streak and easily played its worst game of the season on Thursday, an 81-46 wipeout at No. 22 Utah. Impossibly, Arizona State found itself down 30-2. The Sun Devils hit just 25 percent of their shots overall and were 5-for-22 from long range. Earlier this week, junior guard Andre Spight left the program. He averaged 6.6 points off the bench. Colorado (20-9, 9-7) got itself into the NCAA Tournament field, at least temporarily, with a 75-72 home upset of No. 9 Arizona on Wednesday. It was the Buffs' first win in four tries vs. a ranked team this season and first in the past 12 games overall. Senior big man Josh Scott dominated with a season-high 26 points along with nine rebounds and three blocks. He scored 17 of CU's final 25 points. Colorado needs to win this because it likely will lose its regular-season finale next Saturday at No. 22 Utah. It's the only meeting between CU and ASU this year.

NCAAB Free Pick: Colorado State. ASU is 2-5 ATS in its past seven. The Buffs are 5-2 ATS in their past seven at home.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Colorado State -6.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


No. 5 Xavier vs. Seton Hall (+1.5 For NCAA Basketball Picks)
Xavier is poised for the highest ranking in school history in Monday's polls if the Musketeers can win Sunday. That's because Xavier (25-3, 13-3 Big East) beat No. 1 Villanova 90-83 on Wednesday in Cincinnati. It was the biggest crowd ever at the Cintas Center, which opened for the 2000-01 season. And Villanova was the first No. 1 team to visit there. Xavier is now 6-1 against ranked teams and got payback for a 95-64 blowout loss at Villanova on New Year's Eve. Since the new Big East was reborn in 2013, Xavier had been 0-6 against the Wildcats, losing by an average margin of 17.2 points. Star XU freshman point guard Edmond Sumner was hurt very early in the first meeting with Villanova and didn't return. On Wednesday, he had 19 points and nine assists. Seton Hall (20-7, 10-5) got off the NCAA Tournament bubble with a 70-52 home win over Providence on Thursday. The Pirates have won three straight and seven of eight. They haven't played a ranked team in that stretch, however. Seton Hall lost at No. 5 Xavier 84-76 on Jan. 23. James Farr had 24 points and 15 rebounds to lead XU. The Pirates have beaten a total of five Top 5 opponents in school history, most recently Villanova last season.

My NCAA basketball pick is Seton Hall. How isn't this a letdown game for Xavier? Seton Hall is 5-2 ATS in its past seven at home.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Seton Hall +1.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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