Top O/U Gems In The Huge Saturday NCAAB Slate

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, March 4, 2017 2:57 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 4, 2017 2:57 PM UTC

The end of the college basketball season is a great time for data-driven analysis for handicapping unless the data is complete garbage because the situation has changed. Here I have found two games that will not play out as games earlier in the season because of injuries and missing players.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs Cal Poly Mustangs  

I’ve written about UC Santa Barbara before in my college basketball injury series, as their season has been awful and has gone from bad to worse due to multiple injuries to their top scoring threats. Their starting point guard, Gabe Vincent, and his team leading 14.8 points per game were lost a few weeks ago. Before that, it was their starting forward, Jalen Canty, and his 10.2 points per game that were lost for the Gauchos. There are no remaining players on the UC Santa Barbara team that score in double digits per game. It’s no wonder that they are 5-22 SU on the year, 3-12 SU in the conference, and 0-14 on the road. But most importantly, UC Santa Barbara is cashing 12 of 15 Unders in conference play on the year and average 60.1 points per game on the road.

For this game to get over the number, it will have to be Cal Poly’s offense that gets us there. Their 40.7% shooting average at home gives me confidence that they won’t make up the margin, though, and their 53 points against UC Santa Barbara in their last game in January seals the deal. This game might not exceed 120 points, so I’m taking Under 128.5 points here as one of my Saturday college basketball picks.


Free NCAAB Pick: Under 128.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3103414, "sportsbooksIds":[238,300,1275,123,1096], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/] 


North Texas Mean Green vs Marshall Thundering Herd

Along the same lines as the pick above, North Texas has a lot of offense missing due to injuries as compared to their last barn burner played against Marshall – a 97-78 loss. Since that game, Jeremy Combs, Keith Frazier, Deckie Johnson, and a combined 26.3 points per game have been lost for the season for the Mean Green Eagles. They’ve exceeded 80 points just once in the last month, and they’ll have to do that again for this game to go over the initial line of 169.5 at BookMaker.

For Marshall, the flu has started to show up on their injury report, which I believe is a great reason for them to get up big in this game and then start running clock and conserving injury. If one player has the flu in a locker room it won’t take long for the rest to come down with symptoms. If I was a betting man, I’d consider taking the side of North Texas for this reason as well (I guess I am just that). Either Marshall’s possible fatigue or North Texas’ lack of offense as compared to the last matchup should get this game well under the listed total of 168.5.


Free NCAAB Pick: Under 168.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3102285, "sportsbooksIds":[93,123,1096,43,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here