Thursday's Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends for Sports Picks

Doug Upstone

Thursday, March 26, 2015 5:08 PM GMT

We have a short stack of games to choose from today, but a couple are from the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, which of course has the attention of everyone making college basketball picks. 

Review those line moves along with one from the NBA and the NHL. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll (453-401 L160D)

 

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks 8:05 ET  FS-IN, FS-WI
Both these Central Division teams fighting for the playoffs had last second victories in their previous outing to end six-game losing streaks. With this in mind, what are those making sports picks thinking? Well, Milwaukee opened as one-point favorite versus the NBA odds and they have been sent to -2.5. Before winning last night, the Pacers had allowed 108.5 points per game during their losing streak. Nonetheless, the Bucks offense had been not bargain scoring 90 or fewer points in four of their last six. I found this to influence my decision as a NBA basketball handicapper, home teams like Milwaukee when the line is +3 to -3, after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games, against opponent after two consecutive contests where both teams scored 100 points or more are 9-31 ATS. 

NBA Pick – Lean Indiana

 

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame 7:15 ET  CBS (side and total)
The sportsbooks betting odds began with this Midwest Regional matchup a Pick and the total at 137. By Monday afternoon, Wichita State was up to -2 and the adjusted total was 138.5. The Shockers have been the more impressive team in the tournament, with a strong second half in the opener versus Indiana and taking the game to and crushing Kansas. The Fighting Irish has to fight to upend both Northeastern and Butler in non-cover conclusions. However, both those matchups were against teams trying to slow Notre Dame down and Wichita State’s pace is more in line with how Mike Brey’s team prefers to play. The NCAA Tournament odds are inviting with the Shockers 9-1 OVER in a neutral court game when the total is 130 to 139.5. A case can be made there is something special about both these teams this season, but I like the courage Notre Dame has shown all year and they find a way to win by making enough baskets at the right time. 


NCAA Tournament Pick – Lean Notre Dame & Over

 

North Carolina vs. Wisconsin 7:45 ET  TBS
There is still a perception among the uninformed this is still the same old plodding Wisconsin teams of the past. This could not be further from the truth and the fact is they have three legitimate players starting that will spend varying amounts of time in the NBA after college. North Carolina also has top quality players and a couple are great athletes who can get up and down the floor. This helps explain why a NCAA tournament pick on the total has been juiced from 142 to 144.5. The Tar Heels are 15-6 OVER when playing on neutral court floors the last three years will not want to be caught playing versus the Badgers half court defense. Frank Kaminsky and his teammates have favorable mismatches all over the floor and should score ample points. 

NCAA Tournament Pick – Play Over

 

Pittsburgh Penguins vs.  Carolina Hurricane 7:05 ET  ROOT-P, FS-SO
Pittsburgh has dropped five of six, with their only win coming against skill-depleted Arizona. This has led sports bettors to rethink the original -180  NHL odds makers release and drop it down to -165 on the money line. This does not appear to be an easy decision to make since Carolina is 2-9 in their last 11, which includes six straight losses on home ice. This is no easy NHL pick, thus I’ll lean with the more talented outfit. 

NHL Pick – Lean Pittsburgh

 

Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend
Indiana is 8-0 OVER playing two road games in two days the last two seasons. 

CBB ATS Trend
Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average six or less steals after 15 or more games this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend
San Jose is 8-0 away after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.